2014 NC High School Football Predictions

Last updated: Thursday, November 20, 2014 - thru games of November 15

Prediction Accuracy

PICKING WINNERS STRAIGHT UP IN GAMES/WINNERS AND WITHIN 7 PTS. ON SPREAD: LAST WEEK: 111 right, 22 wrong - 83% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(47/133) SEASON TOTAL: 1994 right, 390 wrong - 84% right; 36% right and within 7 pts.(855/2384) SEASON PERFORMANCE WEEK-BY-WEEK: Week 0: 1 right, 2 wrong - 33% right; 33% right and within 7 pts.(1/3) Week 1: 150 right, 45 wrong - 77% right; 32% right and within 7 pts.(62/195) Week 2: 153 right, 48 wrong - 76% right; 30% right and within 7 pts.(61/201) Week 3: 160 right, 35 wrong - 82% right; 33% right and within 7 pts.(65/195) Week 4: 142 right, 43 wrong - 77% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(57/185) Week 5: 143 right, 21 wrong - 87% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(58/164) Week 6: 171 right, 18 wrong - 90% right; 41% right and within 7 pts.(78/189) (all time record highs for one week) Week 7: 140 right, 15 wrong - 90% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(61/155) (2nd-best week ever) Week 8: 167 right, 25 wrong - 87% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(66/192) Week 9: 161 right, 33 wrong - 83% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(65/194) Week 10: 168 right, 28 wrong - 86% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(77/196) Week 11: 171 right, 23 wrong - 88% right; 47% right and within 7 pts.(92/194) (highest 7 pt. percentage ever) Week 12: 156 right, 32 wrong - 83% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(65/188) Playoffs Week 1: 111 right, 22 wrong - 83% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(47/133)

I calculate the spread for each game by taking the power ratings of the two teams and adding in two points for the home team. If the margin of victory exceeds 42 points, take the difference between the forecast spread and 42 and divide by 2 to get my projected spread, due to the new NC mercy rule(running clock once spread hits 42). For example, 60 points would become 51; 50 points would become 46, etc. The predictions will become more accurate as the season progresses.

Last Week's Results

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14, 2014
FIRST ROUND GAMES
4AA - East Pick Score
#16 Leesville Road (5-6) at #1 Wake Forest (11-0) W by 39 W 42-13
#9 Middle Creek (9-2) at #8 Pinecrest (9-2) M by 1 P 38-9
#12 Jack Britt (6-5) at #5 Millbrook (9-2) M by 15 M 43-35
#13 Fuquay-Varina (5-6) at #4 Richmond Senior (10-1) R by 32 R 53-7
#14 Apex (5-6) at #3 Green Hope (9-2) G by 17 G 24-14
#11 Holly Springs (6-5) at #6 Panther Creek (9-2) P by 15 P 24-21(2ot)
#10 Wakefield (6-5) at #7 Heritage (8-3) H by 18 W 40-35
#15 Laney (5-5) at #2 Garner (10-1) G by 36 G 45-6

4AA - West Pick Score
#16 McDowell (2-9) at #1 East Forsyth (10-1) E by 51 E 59-14
#9 Providence (8-3) at #8 Northwest Guilford (8-3) N by 6 P 34-15
#12 South Mecklenburg (8-3) at #5 Butler (9-2) B by 17 B 55-20
#13 Myers Park (5-6) at #4 Mallard Creek (10-1) MC by 36 MC 42-14
#14 West Charlotte (5-6) at #3 Lake Norman (10-1) L by 32 L 35-7
#11 Page (3-8) at #6 Ardrey Kell (8-3) A by 21 A 28-16
#10 West Forsyth (9-2) at #7 Hough (8-3) W by 1 H 45-17
#15 Olympic (5-6) at #2 Independence (11-0) I by 37 I 35-0


4A - East Pick Score
#16 Clayton (6-5) at #1 New Bern (11-0) N by 43 N 50-14
#9 New Hanover (7-4) at #8 J.H. Rose (9-2) R by 13 R 47-35
#12 E.E. Smith (8-3) at #5 Hillside (7-4) Even - H H 42-28
#13 Riverside(Durham) (4-7) at #4 Seventy-First (11-0) S by 41 S 28-0
#14 D.H. Conley (8-3) at #3 Scotland (10-1) S by 21 S 35-21
#11 West Johnston (8-3) at #6 East Wake (9-2) E by 13 E 48-14
#10 Northern Durham (4-7) at #7 Cape Fear (8-3) C by 17 C 32-14
#15 South Central (7-4) at #2 Hoggard (10-0) H by 23 H 49-21

4A - West Pick Score
#16 Ragsdale (6-5) at #1 Dudley (10-0) R won by forfeit R by forfeit
#9 Vance (8-3) at #8 Mooresville (10-1) M by 10 V 35-7
#12 Rocky River (7-4) at #5 T.C. Roberson (5-6) RR by 23 RR 56-3
#13 Mount Tabor (7-4) at #4 South Caldwell (9-2) M by 4 M 47-0
#14 Davie County (6-5) at #3 Charlotte Catholic (10-1) C by 28 C 37-22
#11 High Point Central (8-3) at #6 Southeast Guilford (10-1) H by 5 H 49-21
#10 Watauga (8-3) at #7 North Davidson (10-1) N by 25 N 52-14
#15 A.L. Brown (6-5) at #2 Reagan (10-1) R by 21 R 50-42


3AA - East Pick Score
#16 Cardinal Gibbons (6-5) at #1 Southern Durham (11-0) S by 39 S 25-6
#9 Gray's Creek (7-4) at #8 Cleveland (9-2) C by 17 C 69-49
#12 Chapel Hill (8-3) at #5 West Brunswick (5-6) C by 15 C 42-14
#13 Eastern Guilford (7-4) at #4 Terry Sanford (8-3) S by 8 S 45-6
#14 Union Pines (6-5) at #3 Corinth Holders (8-3) C by 24 C 29-13
#11 Lee Senior (9-2) at #6 Orange (10-1) O by 11 O 21-20
#10 Northwood (9-2) at #7 Northern Guilford (10-1) NG by 16 NG 56-26
#15 Hunt (6-5) at #2 Fike (10-1) F by 20 F 21-16

3AA - West Pick Score
#16 Central Cabarrus (6-5) at #1 Asheville (10-1) A by 32 A 63-28
#9 North Forsyth (5-6) at #8 Cox Mill (6-5) C by 5 C 44-41
#12 South Iredell (6-5) at #5 Weddington (10-1) W by 32 W 38-0
#13 A.C. Reynolds (6-5) at #4 Erwin (9-1) E by 8 R 38-32
#14 Sun Valley (6-5) at #3 Statesville (7-4) Sta by 8 Sta 21-20
#11 Ledford (7-4) at #6 Hickory Ridge (9-2) H by 8 H 26-7
#10 Marvin Ridge (3-7) at #7 Asheboro (8-3) A by 18 A 28-27
#15 Ashbrook (5-6) at #2 Cuthbertson (8-3) C by 19 C 63-20


3A - East Pick Score
#16 C.B. Aycock (4-7) at #1 Southern Guilford (11-0) S by 44 S 56-13
#9 Rocky Mount (7-4) at #8 Western Alamance (9-2) W by 9 R 21-14
#12 Jacksonville (6-5) at #5 Eastern Wayne (8-2) E by 19 E 43-14
#13 Williams (6-5) at #4 Southern Nash (8-3) S by 15 S 35-28
#14 Morehead (5-6) at #3 Havelock (10-1) H by 44 H 49-10
#11 West Craven (4-7) at #6 South Johnston (5-6) S by 2 W 31-29
#10 Southern Lee (7-4) at #7 West Carteret (9-2) W by 12 S 14-9
#15 South Brunswick (4-7) at #2 Eastern Alamance (11-0) E by 44 E 49-18

3A - West Pick Score
#16 Southwestern Randolph (5-6) at #1 Crest (11-0) C by 44 C 49-7
#9 North Buncombe (7-4) at #8 West Rowan (7-4) W by 10 W 40-7
#12 Hibriten (6-4) at #5 Pisgah (8-3) P by 2 P 16-13
#13 East Gaston (5-6) at #4 Forestview (9-2) F by 25 F 48-14
#14 Tuscola (5-6) at #3 Concord (11-0) C by 45 C 49-7
#11 Fred T. Foard (6-5) at #6 South Point (7-4) S by 21 S 28-12
#10 Kings Mountain (8-3) at #7 West Henderson (7-4) K by 18 W 41-27
#15 East Rowan (5-6) at #2 Freedom (10-0-1) F by 28 E 50-49


2AA - East Pick Score
#16 North Pitt (4-7) at #1 Washington (10-1) W by 38 W 35-7
#9 Cummings (6-5) at #8 Kinston (6-5) C by 1 K 18-13
#12 Greene Central (4-7) at #5 Randleman (9-2) R by 23 R 26-22
#13 Franklinton (7-4) at #4 Roanoke Rapids (8-3) R by 8 R 49-35
#14 Croatan (6-5) at #3 Northside(Jacksonville) (8-3) N by 16 N 31-20
#11 North Brunswick (6-5) at #6 Southwest Edgecombe (8-3) S by 22 S 35-13
#10 Bunn (7-4) at #7 South Granville (7-4) Even - S B 15-6
#15 St. Pauls (5-6) at #2 Northeastern (11-0) N by 44 N 42-20

2AA - West Pick Score
#16 Smoky Mountain (2-9) at #1 East Lincoln (11-0) E by 51 E 56-7
#9 R-S Central (7-4) at #8 Bandys (8-3) B by 7 R 29-26
#12 Newton-Conover (7-3-1) at #5 Lincolnton (9-2) L by 19 L 48-14
#13 Parkwood (6-5) at #4 Hunter Huss (4-7) H by 4 P 37-7
#14 Maiden (5-6) at #3 Ashe County (9-1) A by 13 A 34-27
#11 T.W. Andrews (5-5) at #6 Monroe (7-4) M by 15 M 38-12
#10 Forest Hills (5-6) at #7 West Stokes (7-4) W by 3 W 42-13
#15 Wilkes Central (4-7) at #2 Franklin (11-0) F by 45 F 51-7


2A - East Pick Score
#16 Red Springs (4-7) at #1 East Bladen (9-2) E by 38 E 53-26
#9 Fairmont (6-5) at #8 Farmville Central (9-2) FC by 31 FC 55-12
#12 Midway (7-4) at #5 Southwest Onslow (10-1) S by 19 S 40-6
#13 Warren County (6-5) at #4 South Columbus (5-6) Even - S W 22-17
#14 Bertie (5-6) at #3 Ayden-Grifton (7-4) A by 19 A 40-22
#11 Hertford County (4-7) at #6 Holmes (9-2) Hol by 29 Hol 42-0
#10 Graham (6-5) at #7 Clinton (9-1) C by 35 C 42-0
#15 Pasquotank County (4-7) at #2 Eastern Randolph (8-3) E by 30 E 56-12

2A - West Pick Score
#16 Lake Norman Charter (3-8) at #1 C.D. Owen (10-0) O by 49 O 88-32
#9 Surry Central (7-4) at #8 Salisbury (5-6) Even - SC Sal 14-10
#12 Mountain Heritage (6-5) at #5 North Rowan (9-2) N by 18 N 20-6
#13 East Rutherford (6-5) at #4 Mount Pleasant (9-2) M by 20 M 20-19
#14 Trinity (5-6) at #3 Shelby (9-2) S by 47 S 52-6
#11 Hendersonville (7-4) at #6 Carver (8-2) C by 10 C 62-31
#10 Lexington (3-8) at #7 Polk County (8-3) P by 26 P 22-21
#15 Providence Grove (4-7) at #2 Reidsville (9-2) R by 43 R 56-0


1AA - East Pick Score
#16 Spring Creek (2-8) at #1 Wallace-Rose Hill (10-1) W by 53 W 68-0
#9 East Carteret (5-6) at #8 Rosewood (6-5) E by 1 R 54-20
#12 Union (3-8) at #5 Camden County (8-3) C by 18 C 48-21
#13 Northampton County (3-8) at #4 Princeton (10-1) P by 51 P 70-48
#14 Hobbton (2-9) at #3 Tarboro (8-3) T by 46 T 61-0
#11 Perquimans (4-6) at #6 Louisburg (7-4) L by 30 L 49-14
#10 Riverside(Williamston) (5-6) at #7 Gates County (7-4) R by 1 R 35-6
#15 Pender (2-9) at #2 James Kenan (9-1) K by 47 K 49-0

1AA - West Pick Score
#16 East Wilkes (3-8) at #1 West Montgomery (10-1) W by 44 W 51-7
#9 Walkertown (8-2) at #8 North Stanly (9-2) W by 4 W 55-9
#12 Cherryville (4-7) at #5 Starmount (8-3) S by 34 S 75-27
#13 North Moore (6-5) at #4 Bessemer City (8-3) B by 20 B 28-21
#14 East Montgomery (5-6) at #3 Whiteville (9-2) W by 43 W 45-6
#11 Granville Central (7-4) at #6 Mitchell (7-4) M by 19 M 35-14
#10 Swain County (8-3) at #7 Mount Airy (10-1) M by 14 S 14-0
#15 Avery County (4-7) at #2 East Surry (10-1) E by 25 A 23-15


1A - East Pick Score
#16 KIPP Pride Academy (2-9) at #1 Plymouth (10-1) P by 58 P 54-0
#9 North Duplin (4-7) at #8 Northside(Pinetown) (4-7) NS by 8 ND 56-28
#12 Kestrel Heights (3-7) at #5 North Edgecombe (8-3) NE by 48 NE 47-0
#13 Creswell (3-8) at #4 Southside (8-3) S by 46 S 47-12
#14 Weldon (2-8) at #3 Pamlico (9-2) P by 49 P 47-0
#11 Columbia (3-7) at #6 Lakewood (6-5) L by 43 L 59-0
#10 Manteo (3-7) at #7 South Creek (5-6) S by 14 S 36-6
#15 Rocky Mount Prep (2-9) at #2 Southeast Halifax (10-1) S by 44 S 54-6

1A - West Pick Score
#16 Hayesville (2-8) at #1 Robbinsville (11-0) R by 46 R 35-7
#9 Rosman (5-6) at #8 Comm. Sch. of Davidson (5-6) R by 4 R 26-20
#12 South Robeson (3-8) at #5 Union Academy (5-6) U by 12 U 42-6
#13 Andrews (3-8) at #4 Murphy (8-3) M by 41 M 55-20
#14 West Columbus (3-8) at #3 Elkin (6-5) E by 30 W 30-25
#11 Bishop McGuinness (3-8) at #6 Alleghany (7-4) A by 15 A 12-7
#10 Cherokee (3-8) at #7 Pine Lake Prep (7-4) P by 8 P 38-21
#15 South Stanly (3-8) at #2 Thomas Jefferson Academy (8-3) J by 22 J 33-14


NCISAA PLAYOFFS
Division I - Championship Game Pick Score
#2 Charlotte Latin (10-1) at #1 Charlotte Christian (9-1) CC by 6 CC 28-21(ot)

Division II - Semifinals Pick Score
#5 Harrells Christian (6-5) at #1 Davidson Day (10-1) D by 25 D 52-6
#3 Christ School (7-3) at #2 Southlake Christian (10-1) S by 24 S 47-7

Division III - Semifinals Pick Score
#5 Wake Christian (8-4) at #1 Victory Christian (8-3) V by 42 V 62-0
#3 Metrolina Christian (8-3) at #2 Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (GA) (10-2) (Sat.) R by 5 R 28-24
Q Foundation (3-5) at Carolina Pride (8-2) Even - C C 32-12
For the week: 111/133 83.5%
Correct pick and 7 points or less: 47/133 35.3%



This Week's Picks


NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21, 2014
SECOND ROUND GAMES
4AA - East Pick
#8 Pinecrest (10-2) at #1 Wake Forest (12-0) W by 13
#5 Millbrook (10-2) at #4 Richmond Senior (11-1) R by 16
#6 Panther Creek (10-2) at #3 Green Hope (10-2) P by 2
#10 Wakefield (7-5) at #2 Garner (11-1) G by 28

4AA - West Pick
#9 Providence (9-3) at #1 East Forsyth (11-1) E by 13
#5 Butler (10-2) at #4 Mallard Creek (11-1) M by 5
#6 Ardrey Kell (9-3) at #3 Lake Norman (11-1) L by 6
#7 Hough (9-3) at #2 Independence (12-0) I by 11


4A - East Pick
#8 J.H. Rose (10-2) at #1 New Bern (12-0) N by 21
#5 Hillside (8-4) at #4 Seventy-First (12-0) S by 15
#6 East Wake (10-2) at #3 Scotland (11-1) S by 17
#7 Cape Fear (9-3) at #2 Hoggard (11-0) H by 14

4A - West Pick
#16 Ragsdale (7-5) at #9 Vance (9-3) V by 26
#13 Mount Tabor (8-4) at #12 Rocky River (8-4) Even - R
#11 High Point Central (9-3) at #3 Charlotte Catholic (11-1) C by 10
#7 North Davidson (11-1) at #2 Reagan (11-1) R by 5


3AA - East Pick
#8 Cleveland (10-2) at #1 Southern Durham (12-0) S by 22
#12 Chapel Hill (9-3) at #4 Terry Sanford (9-3) S by 13
#6 Orange (11-1) at #3 Corinth Holders (9-3) O by 19
#7 Northern Guilford (11-1) at #2 Fike (11-1) N by 12

3AA - West Pick
#9 Cox Mill (7-5) at #1 Asheville (11-1) A by 24
#13 A.C. Reynolds (7-5) at #5 Weddington (11-1) W by 15
#6 Hickory Ridge (10-2) at #3 Statesville (8-4) H by 2
#7 Asheboro (9-3) at #2 Cuthbertson (9-3) C by 4


3A - East Pick
#9 Rocky Mount (8-4) at #1 Southern Guilford (12-0) S by 18
#5 Eastern Wayne (9-2) at #4 Southern Nash (9-3) E by 3
#11 West Craven (5-7) at #3 Havelock (11-1) H by 38
#10 Southern Lee (8-4) at #2 Eastern Alamance (12-0) E by 23

3A - West Pick
#8 West Rowan (8-4) at #1 Crest (12-0) C by 27
#5 Pisgah (9-3) at #4 Forestview (10-2) F by 22
#6 South Point (8-4) at #3 Concord (12-0) C by 16
#15 East Rowan (6-6) at #7 West Henderson (8-4) E by 7


2AA - East Pick
#8 Kinston (7-5) at #1 Washington (11-1) W by 33
#5 Randleman (10-2) at #4 Roanoke Rapids (9-3) Ran by 9
#6 Southwest Edgecombe (9-3) at #3 Northside(Jacksonville) (9-3) S by 5
#10 Bunn (8-4) at #2 Northeastern (12-0) N by 22

2AA - West Pick
#9 R-S Central (8-4) at #1 East Lincoln (12-0) E by 28
#13 Parkwood (7-5) at #5 Lincolnton (10-2) L by 22
#6 Monroe (8-4) at #3 Ashe County (10-1) M by 11
#7 West Stokes (8-4) at #2 Franklin (12-0) F by 20


2A - East Pick
#8 Farmville Central (10-2) at #1 East Bladen (10-2) F by 5
#13 Warren County (7-5) at #5 Southwest Onslow (11-1) S by 30
#6 Holmes (10-2) at #3 Ayden-Grifton (8-4) H by 8
#7 Clinton (10-1) at #2 Eastern Randolph (9-3) C by 14

2A - West Pick
#8 Salisbury (6-6) at #1 C.D. Owen (11-0) O by 32
#5 North Rowan (10-2) at #4 Mount Pleasant (10-2) M by 5
#6 Carver (9-2) at #3 Shelby (10-2) S by 14
#7 Polk County (9-3) at #2 Reidsville (10-2) R by 15


1AA - East Pick
#8 Rosewood (7-5) at #1 Wallace-Rose Hill (11-1) W by 36
#5 Camden County (9-3) at #4 Princeton (11-1) P by 29
#6 Louisburg (8-4) at #3 Tarboro (9-3) T by 24
#10 Riverside(Williamston) (6-6) at #2 James Kenan (10-1) K by 27

1AA - West Pick
#9 Walkertown (9-2) at #1 West Montgomery (11-1) WM by 10
#5 Starmount (9-3) at #4 Bessemer City (9-3) S by 18
#6 Mitchell (8-4) at #3 Whiteville (10-2) W by 20
#15 Avery County (5-7) at #10 Swain County (9-3) S by 16


1A - East Pick
#9 North Duplin (5-7) at #1 Plymouth (11-1) P by 41
#5 North Edgecombe (9-3) at #4 Southside (9-3) S by 5
#6 Lakewood (7-5) at #3 Pamlico (10-2) P by 22
#7 South Creek (6-6) at #2 Southeast Halifax (11-1) SH by 16

1A - West Pick
#9 Rosman (6-6) at #1 Robbinsville (12-0) Rob by 33
#5 Union Academy (6-6) at #4 Murphy (9-3) M by 44
#14 West Columbus (4-8) at #6 Alleghany (8-4) A by 22
#7 Pine Lake Prep (8-4) at #2 Thomas Jefferson Academy (9-3) J by 9


NCISAA PLAYOFFS
Division II - Championship Game (at Northside Christian) Pick
#2 Southlake Christian (11-1) vs. #1 Davidson Day (11-1) S by 3

Division III - Championship Game
#2 Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (GA) (11-2) at #1 Victory Christian (9-3) V by 13