## Last updated: Saturday, December 14, 2019 - thru games of December 14

PICKING WINNERS STRAIGHT UP IN GAMES/WINNERS AND WITHIN 7 PTS. ON SPREAD: LAST WEEK: 6 right, 2 wrong - 75% right; 13% right and within 7 pts.(1/8) SEASON TOTAL: 2001 right, 433 wrong - 82% right; 33% right and within 7 pts.(798/2434) SEASON PERFORMANCE WEEK-BY-WEEK: Week 1: 142 right, 46 wrong - 76% right; 26% right and within 7 pts.(49/188) Week 2: 166 right, 35 wrong - 83% right; 32% right and within 7 pts.(65/201) Week 3: 134 right, 34 wrong - 80% right; 29% right and within 7 pts.(48/168) Week 4: 148 right, 42 wrong - 78% right; 25% right and within 7 pts.(48/190) Week 5: 148 right, 21 wrong - 88% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(58/169) Week 6: 154 right, 35 wrong - 81% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(65/189) Week 7: 142 right, 21 wrong - 87% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(63/163) Week 8: 158 right, 31 wrong - 84% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(59/189) Week 9: 170 right, 27 wrong - 86% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(69/197) Week 10: 162 right, 27 wrong - 86% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(66/189) Week 11: 152 right, 35 wrong - 81% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(73/187) Week 12: 155 right, 32 wrong - 83% right; 36% right and within 7 pts.(67/187) Playoffs: Round 1: 80 right, 18 wrong - 82% right; 37% right and within 7 pts.(36/98) Round 2: 50 right, 13 wrong - 79% right; 27% right and within 7 pts.(17/63) Round 3: 24 right, 8 wrong - 75% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(10/32) Regional: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 25% right and within 7 pts.(4/16) State: 6 right, 2 wrong - 75% right; 13% right and within 7 pts.(1/8)

I calculate the spread for each game by taking the power ratings of the two teams and adding in two points for the home team. If the margin of victory exceeds 42 points, take the difference between the forecast spread and 42 and divide by 2 to get my projected spread, due to the new NC mercy rule(running clock once spread hits 42). For example, 60 points would become 51; 50 points would become 46, etc. The predictions will become more accurate as the season progresses.

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - DECEMBER 14, 2019 | ||

STATE CHAMPIONSHIPS | ||

4AA - at UNC | PICK | SCORE |

Leesville Road (14-0) vs. Zebulon B. Vance (12-2) | V by 12 | V 24-3 |

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4A - at UNC | PICK | SCORE |

Cardinal Gibbons (12-2) vs. East Forsyth (12-2) | C by 9 | E 24-21 |

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3AA - at NCSU | PICK | SCORE |

Lee County (15-0) vs. Weddington (15-0) | W by 16 | W 34-14 |

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3A - at NCSU | PICK | SCORE |

Southern Nash (15-0) vs. Charlotte Catholic (11-3) | C by 3 | C 23-7 |

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2AA - at Wake Forest | PICK | SCORE |

Salisbury (13-2) vs. Shelby (12-2) | Sh by 22 | Sh 34-0 |

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2A - at Wake Forest | PICK | SCORE |

Northeastern (12-3) vs. Reidsville (14-1) | R by 4 | R 14-0 |

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1AA - at Duke | PICK | SCORE |

Tarboro (14-0) vs. East Surry (14-0) | T by 11 | E 56-28 |

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1A - at Duke | PICK | SCORE |

Northampton County (11-3) vs. Robbinsville (14-0) | R by 20 | R 45-14 |

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY DECEMBER 6, 2019 | ||

REGIONAL FINALS | ||

4AA | PICK | SCORE |

East - #2 Leesville Road (13-0) at #1 Wake Forest (12-1) | W by 3 | L 21-10 |

West - #10 Zebulon B. Vance (11-2) at #1 Richmond (13-0) | R by 11 | V 38-7 |

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4A | PICK | SCORE |

East - #6 Scotland (12-2) at #4 Cardinal Gibbons (11-2) | C by 15 | C 22-15 |

West - #2 East Forsyth (11-2) at #1 Grimsley (12-1) | E by 6 | E 21-20 |

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3AA | PICK | SCORE |

East - #2 New Hanover (13-1) at #1 Lee County (14-0) | L by 6 | L 34-9 |

West - #2 Watauga (13-1) at #1 Weddington (14-0) | Wed by 21 | Wed 49-14 |

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3A | PICK | SCORE |

East - #3 Eastern Alamance (14-0) at #1 Southern Nash (14-0) | S by 7 | S 32-29 |

West - #10 Kings Mountain (12-2) at #5 Charlotte Catholic (10-3) | K by 2 | C 56-49(7ot) |

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2AA | PICK | SCORE |

East - #7 Salisbury (12-2) at #1 Randleman (13-0) | R by 6 | S 14-7 |

West - #6 Burns (12-2) at #1 Shelby (12-1) | S by 10 | S 42-14 |

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2A | PICK | SCORE |

East - #3 Northeastern (11-3) at #1 Clinton (12-1) | C by 2 | N 23-8 |

West - #4 West Stokes (11-3) at #2 Reidsville (13-1) | R by 23 | R 63-13 |

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1AA | PICK | SCORE |

East - #2 Edenton Holmes (12-0) at #1 Tarboro (13-0) | T by 11 | T 35-6 |

West - #2 Mitchell (12-1) at #1 East Surry (13-0) | E by 9 | E 35-28 |

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1A | PICK | SCORE |

East - #4 Northampton County (10-3) at #2 North Edgecombe (10-3) | NE by 10 | NC 20-12 |

West - #3 Thomas Jefferson (12-1) at #1 Robbinsville (13-0) | R by 9 | R 28-14 |

For the week: | 10/16 | 62.5% |

Correct pick and within 7 points or less: | 4/16 | 25.0% |