2016 NC High School Football Predictions

Last updated: Thursday, December 8, 2016 - thru games of December 2

Prediction Accuracy

PICKING WINNERS STRAIGHT UP IN GAMES/WINNERS AND WITHIN 7 PTS. ON SPREAD: LAST WEEK: 26 right, 6 wrong - 81% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(11/32) SEASON TOTAL: 2079 right, 442 wrong - 82% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(861/2521) SEASON PERFORMANCE WEEK-BY-WEEK: Week 0: 2 right, 0 wrong - 100% right; 100% right and within 7 pts.(2/2) Week 1: 152 right, 48 wrong - 76% right; 27% right and within 7 pts.(53/200) Week 2: 154 right, 53 wrong - 74% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(64/207) Week 3: 153 right, 35 wrong - 81% right; 36% right and within 7 pts.(68/188) Week 4: 163 right, 38 wrong - 81% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(63/201) Week 5: 154 right, 25 wrong - 86% right; 37% right and within 7 pts.(66/179) Week 6: 163 right, 27 wrong - 86% right; 36% right and within 7 pts.(69/190) Week 7: 128 right, 32 wrong - 80% right; 40% right and within 7 pts.(64/160) Week 8: 156 right, 32 wrong - 83% right; 30% right and within 7 pts.(57/188) Week 9: 129 right, 23 wrong - 85% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(59/152) Week 10: 162 right, 32 wrong - 84% right; 41% right and within 7 pts.(80/194) Week 11: 162 right, 34 wrong - 83% right; 32% right and within 7 pts.(63/196) Week 12: 165 right, 26 wrong - 86% right; 37% right and within 7 pts.(71/191) Week 13: 41 right, 5 wrong - 89% right; 24% right and within 7 pts.(11/46) Playoff 1:114 right, 17 wrong - 87% right; 32% right and within 7 pts.(42/131) Playoff 2: 55 right, 9 wrong - 86% right; 28% right and within 7 pts.(18/64) Playoff 3: 26 right, 6 wrong - 81% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(11/32)

I calculate the spread for each game by taking the power ratings of the two teams and adding in two points for the home team. If the margin of victory exceeds 42 points, take the difference between the forecast spread and 42 and divide by 2 to get my projected spread, due to the new NC mercy rule(running clock once spread hits 42). For example, 60 points would become 51; 50 points would become 46, etc. The predictions will become more accurate as the season progresses.

Last Week's Results

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY DECEMBER 2, 2016
THIRD ROUND GAMES
4AA - East Pick Score
#3E Heritage (11-2) at #1E Wake Forest (13-0) W by 13 W 35-20
#2E Garner (12-1) at #1ME Middle Creek (13-0) M by 9 M 49-30

4AA - West Pick Score
#4MW West Forsyth (11-2) at #2MW Page (12-1) P by 13 P 49-14
#3MW Vance (12-1) at #1MW Butler (12-1) B by 8 V 50-49(ot)


4A - East Pick Score
#4ME Cardinal Gibbons (12-1) at #2ME Cape Fear (13-0) CF by 13 CF 47-33
#6E Hoggard (8-5) at #1ME Scotland (13-0) S by 28 S 49-27

4A - West Pick Score
#2MW Dudley (12-1) at #1W Davie County (12-1) Dud by 4 Dud 54-30
#2W Charlotte Catholic (12-1) at #1MW East Forsyth (12-1) E by 6 C 28-24


3AA - East Pick Score
#5E Jacksonville (9-4) at #2ME Lee County (12-1) L by 20 J 45-42
#3ME Western Alamance (11-2) at #1ME Eastern Guilford (13-0) E by 3 E 28-17

3AA - West Pick Score
#2MW Weddington (10-3) at #1W A.C. Reynolds (11-2) W by 5 W 21-13
#4W Marvin Ridge (8-5) at #3MW Hickory Ridge (11-2) H by 4 H 55-49(4ot)


3A - East Pick Score
#3E Havelock (12-1) at #1E West Craven (12-0) W by 3 H 24-7
#4E Rocky Mount (11-2) at #3ME Southern Guilford (11-2) R by 12 R 49-20

3A - West Pick Score
#2MW West Rowan (10-3) at #1W Hibriten (13-0) H by 12 H 49-20
#2W Pisgah (12-1) at #1MW South Point (9-4) S by 17 S 42-0


2AA - East Pick Score
#3E Hertford County (9-4) at #1E East Duplin (12-1) E by 17 E 35-27
#6E Northside(Jacksonville) (10-3) at #1ME Clinton (13-0) C by 9 N 21-14

2AA - West Pick Score
#3W Hunter Huss (10-3) at #1W Shelby (13-0) S by 23 S 48-33
#3MW East Lincoln (11-2) at #1MW Monroe (11-2) M by 12 M 27-0


2A - East Pick Score
#3E Edenton Holmes (11-2) at #1E Northeastern (11-2) N by 7 E 35-21
#3ME East Bladen (9-4) at #1ME South Columbus (11-2) S by 2 S 42-41

2A - West Pick Score
#3W Hendersonville (10-3) at #1W Lincolnton (12-1) L by 11 L 72-44
#3MW North Rowan (11-2) at #1MW Reidsville (13-0) R by 17 R 30-13


1AA - East Pick Score
#3E Tarboro (11-2) at #1E East Carteret (12-1) T by 4 T 13-7
#2E Wallace-Rose Hill (12-1) at #1ME Lakewood (10-3) W by 34 W 35-0

1AA - West Pick Score
#2MW Whiteville (8-5) at #1W Mount Airy (12-1) M by 17 M 38-12
#3MW East Montgomery (12-1) at #1MW West Montgomery (13-0) W by 8 W 23-20


1A - East Pick Score
#2ME North Edgecombe (11-1) at #1E Plymouth (10-3) P by 3 P 21-8
#5E Northampton County (7-6) at #2E Southside (9-4) S by 12 S 39-12

1A - West Pick Score
#2MW Mountain Island Charter (10-3) at #1W Murphy (12-1) Mur by 11 Mur 35-34
#4W Cherokee (9-4) at #2W Mitchell (12-1) M by 24 M 45-14
For the week: 26/32 81.3%
Correct pick and 7 points or less: 11/32 34.4%




This Week's Picks



NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY DECEMBER 9, 2016
REGIONAL FINALS
4AA Pick
East - Wake Forest (14-0) at Middle Creek (14-0) M by 8
West - Vance (13-1) at Page (13-1) P by 5

4A Pick
East - Cape Fear (14-0) at Scotland (14-0) S by 8
West - Dudley (13-1) at Charlotte Catholic (13-1) D by 3

3AA Pick
East - Jacksonville (10-4) at Eastern Guilford (14-0) E by 14
West - Hickory Ridge (12-2) at Weddington (11-3) W by 13

3A Pick
East - Rocky Mount (12-2) at Havelock (13-1) H by 5
West - South Point (10-4) at Hibriten (14-0) H by 7

2AA Pick
East - Northside(Jacksonville) (11-3) at East Duplin (13-1) E by 2
West - Monroe (12-2) at Shelby (14-0) S by 12

2A Pick
East - Edenton Holmes (12-2) at South Columbus (12-2) E by 13
West - Lincolnton (13-1) at Reidsville (14-0) R by 11

1AA Pick
East - Tarboro (12-2) at Wallace-Rose Hill (13-1) W by 10
West - Mount Airy (13-1) at West Montgomery (14-0) W by 7

1A Pick
East - Southside (10-4) at Plymouth (11-3) P by 11
West - Mitchell (13-1) at Murphy (13-1) Mur by 3