## 2015 NC High School Football Predictions

Last updated: Thursday, December 10, 2015 - thru games of December 4

## Prediction Accuracy

PICKING WINNERS STRAIGHT UP IN GAMES/WINNERS AND WITHIN 7 PTS. ON SPREAD: LAST WEEK: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 50% right and within 7 pts.(8/16) SEASON TOTAL: 2060 right, 462 wrong - 82% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(871/2522) SEASON PERFORMANCE WEEK-BY-WEEK: Week 0: 3 right, 0 wrong - 100% right; 0% right and within 7 pts.(0/3) Week 1: 154 right, 47 wrong - 77% right; 27% right and within 7 pts.(54/201) Week 2: 161 right, 45 wrong - 78% right; 26% right and within 7 pts.(54/206) Week 3: 148 right, 47 wrong - 76% right; 29% right and within 7 pts.(57/195) Week 4: 155 right, 42 wrong - 79% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(68/197) Week 5: 138 right, 39 wrong - 78% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(55/177) Week 6: 156 right, 27 wrong - 85% right; 38% right and within 7 pts.(69/183) Week 7: 124 right, 18 wrong - 87% right; 41% right and within 7 pts.(59/142) Week 8: 163 right, 35 wrong - 82% right; 38% right and within 7 pts.(75/198) Week 9: 170 right, 25 wrong - 87% right; 37% right and within 7 pts.(72/195) Week 10: 166 right, 29 wrong - 85% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(66/195) Week 11: 166 right, 27 wrong - 86% right; 46% right and within 7 pts.(88/193) Week 12: 151 right, 35 wrong - 81% right; 30% right and within 7 pts.(56/186) Playoffs Week 1: 112 right, 25 wrong - 82% right; 33% right and within 7 pts.(45/137) Week 2: 55 right, 11 wrong - 83% right; 47% right and within 7 pts.(31/66) Week 3: 27 right, 5 wrong - 84% right; 44% right and within 7 pts.(14/32) Regionals: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 50% right and within 7 pts.(8/16)

I calculate the spread for each game by taking the power ratings of the two teams and adding in two points for the home team. If the margin of victory exceeds 42 points, take the difference between the forecast spread and 42 and divide by 2 to get my projected spread, due to the new NC mercy rule(running clock once spread hits 42). For example, 60 points would become 51; 50 points would become 46, etc. The predictions will become more accurate as the season progresses.

## Last Week's Results

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY DECEMBER 4, 2015 | ||

REGIONAL FINALS | ||

4AA | Pick | Score |

East - #6 Page (12-2) at #1 Middle Creek (14-0) | M by 1 | P 49-23 |

West - #6 Mallard Creek (12-2) at #1 East Forsyth (14-0) | E by 4 | M 41-38(ot) |

| ||

4A | Pick | Score |

East - #5 J.H. Rose (11-2) at #2 New Hanover (12-2) | R by 8 | R 28-14 |

West - #2 Charlotte Catholic (13-0) at #1 Dudley (13-1) | D by 6 | C 17-8 |

| ||

3AA | Pick | Score |

East - #13 Northern Guilford (10-4) at #3 Southern Durham (11-3) | S by 2 | S 19-15 |

West - #2 Crest (14-0) at #1 Concord (13-1) | Cr by 7 | Cr 44-6 |

| ||

3A | Pick | Score |

East - #3 Rocky Mount (12-2) at #1 Eastern Alamance (14-0) | E by 8 | R 42-21 |

West - #8 Kings Mountain (12-2) at #2 South Point (12-2) | S by 2 | S 29-7 |

| ||

2AA | Pick | Score |

East - #4 Clinton (11-2) at #2 Bunn (12-2) | C by 9 | B 30-29(ot) |

West - #2 East Lincoln (14-0) at #1 Monroe (14-0) | M by 12 | M 46-6 |

| ||

2A | Pick | Score |

East - #2 Southwest Edgecombe (13-1) at #1 Kinston (14-0) | K by 1 | K 22-21(ot) |

West - #6 Lincolnton (12-2) at #1 Shelby (13-1) | S by 13 | S 37-21 |

| ||

1AA | Pick | Score |

East - #3 James Kenan (12-1) at #1 Wallace-Rose Hill (13-1) | W by 12 | W 29-13 |

West - #10 Walkertown (9-5) at #4 Mitchell (13-1) | M by 7 | M 27-23 |

| ||

1A | Pick | Score |

East - #2 Southside (12-1) at #1 Plymouth (12-2) | P by 10 | P 17-12 |

West - #2 Robbinsville (11-2) at #1 Comm. Sch. of Davidson (12-2) | R by 1 | R 30-27 |

For the week: | 11/16 | 68.8% |

Correct pick and 7 points or less: | 8/16 | 50.0% |

## This Week's Picks

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - DECEMBER 11-12, 2015 | |

STATE CHAMPIONSHIPS | Pick |

4AA - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Page (13-2) vs. Mallard Creek (13-2) | M by 3 |

| |

4A - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

J.H. Rose (12-2) vs. Charlotte Catholic (14-0) | C by 15 |

| |

3AA - at Univ. of North Carolina | |

Southern Durham (12-3) vs. Crest (15-0) | C by 13 |

| |

3A - at Univ. of North Carolina | |

Rocky Mount (13-2) vs. South Point (13-2) | R by 1 |

| |

2AA - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Bunn (13-2) vs. Monroe (15-0) | M by 29 |

| |

2A - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Kinston (15-0) vs. Shelby (14-1) | S by 15 |

| |

1AA - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

Wallace-Rose Hill (14-1) vs. Mitchell (14-1) | W by 13 |

| |

1A - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

Plymouth (13-2) vs. Robbinsville (12-2) | R by 3 |