2019 NC High School Football Predictions

Last updated: Saturday, December 14, 2019 - thru games of December 14

Prediction Accuracy


PICKING WINNERS STRAIGHT UP IN GAMES/WINNERS AND WITHIN 7 PTS. ON SPREAD:

LAST WEEK:       6 right,   2 wrong - 75% right; 13% right and within 7 pts.(1/8)

SEASON TOTAL: 2001 right, 433 wrong - 82% right; 33% right and within 7 pts.(798/2434)


SEASON PERFORMANCE WEEK-BY-WEEK:
Week 1:  142 right, 46 wrong - 76% right; 26% right and within 7 pts.(49/188)
Week 2:  166 right, 35 wrong - 83% right; 32% right and within 7 pts.(65/201)
Week 3:  134 right, 34 wrong - 80% right; 29% right and within 7 pts.(48/168)
Week 4:  148 right, 42 wrong - 78% right; 25% right and within 7 pts.(48/190)
Week 5:  148 right, 21 wrong - 88% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(58/169)
Week 6:  154 right, 35 wrong - 81% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(65/189)
Week 7:  142 right, 21 wrong - 87% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(63/163)
Week 8:  158 right, 31 wrong - 84% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(59/189)
Week 9:  170 right, 27 wrong - 86% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(69/197)
Week 10: 162 right, 27 wrong - 86% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(66/189)
Week 11: 152 right, 35 wrong - 81% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(73/187)
Week 12: 155 right, 32 wrong - 83% right; 36% right and within 7 pts.(67/187)

Playoffs:
Round 1:  80 right, 18 wrong - 82% right; 37% right and within 7 pts.(36/98)
Round 2:  50 right, 13 wrong - 79% right; 27% right and within 7 pts.(17/63)
Round 3:  24 right,  8 wrong - 75% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(10/32)
Regional: 10 right,  6 wrong - 63% right; 25% right and within 7 pts.(4/16)
State:     6 right,  2 wrong - 75% right; 13% right and within 7 pts.(1/8)


I calculate the spread for each game by taking the power ratings of the two teams and adding in two points for the home team. If the margin of victory exceeds 42 points, take the difference between the forecast spread and 42 and divide by 2 to get my projected spread, due to the new NC mercy rule(running clock once spread hits 42). For example, 60 points would become 51; 50 points would become 46, etc. The predictions will become more accurate as the season progresses.




This Week's Picks/Scoreboard

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - DECEMBER 14, 2019
STATE CHAMPIONSHIPS
4AA - at UNC PICK SCORE
Leesville Road (14-0) vs. Zebulon B. Vance (12-2) V by 12 V 24-3

4A - at UNC PICK SCORE
Cardinal Gibbons (12-2) vs. East Forsyth (12-2) C by 9 E 24-21

3AA - at NCSU PICK SCORE
Lee County (15-0) vs. Weddington (15-0) W by 16 W 34-14

3A - at NCSU PICK SCORE
Southern Nash (15-0) vs. Charlotte Catholic (11-3) C by 3 C 23-7

2AA - at Wake Forest PICK SCORE
Salisbury (13-2) vs. Shelby (12-2) Sh by 22 Sh 34-0

2A - at Wake Forest PICK SCORE
Northeastern (12-3) vs. Reidsville (14-1) R by 4 R 14-0

1AA - at Duke PICK SCORE
Tarboro (14-0) vs. East Surry (14-0) T by 11 E 56-28

1A - at Duke PICK SCORE
Northampton County (11-3) vs. Robbinsville (14-0) R by 20 R 45-14



Last Week's Results

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY DECEMBER 6, 2019
REGIONAL FINALS
4AA PICK SCORE
East - #2 Leesville Road (13-0) at #1 Wake Forest (12-1) W by 3 L 21-10
West - #10 Zebulon B. Vance (11-2) at #1 Richmond (13-0) R by 11 V 38-7


4A PICK SCORE
East - #6 Scotland (12-2) at #4 Cardinal Gibbons (11-2) C by 15 C 22-15
West - #2 East Forsyth (11-2) at #1 Grimsley (12-1) E by 6 E 21-20


3AA PICK SCORE
East - #2 New Hanover (13-1) at #1 Lee County (14-0) L by 6 L 34-9
West - #2 Watauga (13-1) at #1 Weddington (14-0) Wed by 21 Wed 49-14


3A PICK SCORE
East - #3 Eastern Alamance (14-0) at #1 Southern Nash (14-0) S by 7 S 32-29
West - #10 Kings Mountain (12-2) at #5 Charlotte Catholic (10-3) K by 2 C 56-49(7ot)


2AA PICK SCORE
East - #7 Salisbury (12-2) at #1 Randleman (13-0) R by 6 S 14-7
West - #6 Burns (12-2) at #1 Shelby (12-1) S by 10 S 42-14


2A PICK SCORE
East - #3 Northeastern (11-3) at #1 Clinton (12-1) C by 2 N 23-8
West - #4 West Stokes (11-3) at #2 Reidsville (13-1) R by 23 R 63-13


1AA PICK SCORE
East - #2 Edenton Holmes (12-0) at #1 Tarboro (13-0) T by 11 T 35-6
West - #2 Mitchell (12-1) at #1 East Surry (13-0) E by 9 E 35-28


1A PICK SCORE
East - #4 Northampton County (10-3) at #2 North Edgecombe (10-3) NE by 10 NC 20-12
West - #3 Thomas Jefferson (12-1) at #1 Robbinsville (13-0) R by 9 R 28-14
For the week: 10/16 62.5%
Correct pick and within 7 points or less: 4/16 25.0%