## 2014 NC High School Football Predictions

Last updated: Thursday, December 11, 2014 - thru games of December 5

## Prediction Accuracy

PICKING WINNERS STRAIGHT UP IN GAMES/WINNERS AND WITHIN 7 PTS. ON SPREAD: LAST WEEK: 16 right, 0 wrong - 100% right; 56% right and within 7 pts.(9/16) SEASON TOTAL: 2087 right, 411 wrong - 84% right; 36% right and within 7 pts.(895/2498) SEASON PERFORMANCE WEEK-BY-WEEK: Week 0: 1 right, 2 wrong - 33% right; 33% right and within 7 pts.(1/3) Week 1: 150 right, 45 wrong - 77% right; 32% right and within 7 pts.(62/195) Week 2: 153 right, 48 wrong - 76% right; 30% right and within 7 pts.(61/201) Week 3: 160 right, 35 wrong - 82% right; 33% right and within 7 pts.(65/195) Week 4: 142 right, 43 wrong - 77% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(57/185) Week 5: 143 right, 21 wrong - 87% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(58/164) Week 6: 171 right, 18 wrong - 90% right; 41% right and within 7 pts.(78/189) (all time record highs for one regular season week) Week 7: 140 right, 15 wrong - 90% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(61/155) (2nd-best regular season week ever) Week 8: 167 right, 25 wrong - 87% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(66/192) Week 9: 161 right, 33 wrong - 83% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(65/194) Week 10: 168 right, 28 wrong - 86% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(77/196) Week 11: 171 right, 23 wrong - 88% right; 47% right and within 7 pts.(92/194) (highest 7 pt. percentage ever) Week 12: 156 right, 32 wrong - 83% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(65/188) Playoffs Week 1: 111 right, 22 wrong - 83% right; 35% right and within 7 pts.(47/133) Playoffs Week 2: 56 right, 10 wrong - 85% right; 33% right and within 7 pts.(22/66) Playoffs Week 3: 21 right, 11 wrong - 66% right; 28% right and within 7 pts.(9/32) Regional Finals: 16 right, 0 wrong - 100% right; 56% right and within 7 pts.(9/16) **Best week ever**

I calculate the spread for each game by taking the power ratings of the two teams and adding in two points for the home team. If the margin of victory exceeds 42 points, take the difference between the forecast spread and 42 and divide by 2 to get my projected spread, due to the new NC mercy rule(running clock once spread hits 42). For example, 60 points would become 51; 50 points would become 46, etc. The predictions will become more accurate as the season progresses.

## Last Week's Results

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY DECEMBER 5, 2014 | ||

REGIONAL FINALS | ||

4AA | Pick | Score |

East - #2 Garner (13-1) at #1 Wake Forest (14-0) | W by 6 | W 27-13 |

West - #4 Mallard Creek (13-1) at #3 Lake Norman (13-1) | M by 13 | M 48-41 |

| ||

4A | Pick | Score |

East - #2 Hoggard (13-0) at #1 New Bern (14-0) | N by 14 | N 49-14 |

West - #9 Vance (11-3) at #3 Charlotte Catholic (13-1) | C by 10 | C 35-34 |

| ||

3AA | Pick | Score |

East - #12 Chapel Hill (11-3) at #7 Northern Guilford (13-1) | N by 21 | N 34-15 |

West - #5 Weddington (13-1) at #2 Cuthbertson (11-3) | W by 9 | W 24-21 |

| ||

3A | Pick | Score |

East - #5 Eastern Wayne (11-2) at #3 Havelock (13-1) | H by 20 | H 35-12 |

West - #6 South Point (10-4) at #1 Crest (14-0) | C by 21 | C 13-7 |

| ||

2AA | Pick | Score |

East - #2 Northeastern (14-0) at #1 Washington (13-1) | W by 3 | W 41-17 |

West - #2 Franklin (14-0) at #1 East Lincoln (14-0) | E by 6 | E 31-21 |

| ||

2A | Pick | Score |

East - #7 Clinton (12-1) at #5 Southwest Onslow (13-1) | C by 7 | C 45-21 |

West - #4 Mount Pleasant (12-2) at #3 Shelby (12-2) | S by 9 | S 31-17 |

| ||

1AA | Pick | Score |

East - #2 James Kenan (12-1) at #1 Wallace-Rose Hill (13-1) | W by 8 | W 34-31 |

West - #10 Swain County (11-3) at #5 Starmount (11-3) | Star by 1 | Star 42-14 |

| ||

1A | Pick | Score |

East - #6 Lakewood (9-5) at #1 Plymouth (13-1) | P by 22 | P 28-0 |

West - #6 Alleghany (10-4) at #1 Robbinsville (14-0) | R by 29 | R 31-7 |

For the week: | 16/16 | 100.0% |

7 points or less: | 9/16 | 56.3% |

## This Week's Picks

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - DECEMBER 12-13, 2014 | |

STATE CHAMPIONSHIPS | Pick |

4AA - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

Wake Forest (15-0) vs. Mallard Creek (14-1) | M by 4 |

| |

4A - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

New Bern (15-0) vs. Charlotte Catholic (14-1) | N by 8 |

| |

3AA - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Northern Guilford (14-1) vs. Weddington (14-1) | N by 5 |

| |

3A - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Havelock (14-1) vs. Crest (15-0) | H by 4 |

| |

2AA - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

Washington (14-1) vs. East Lincoln (15-0) | W by 1 |

| |

2A - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

Clinton (13-1) vs. Shelby (13-2) | Even - C |

| |

1AA - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Wallace-Rose Hill (14-1) vs. Starmount (12-3) | W by 12 |

| |

1A - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Plymouth (14-1) vs. Robbinsville (15-0) | R by 4 |