## 2016 NC High School Football Predictions

Last updated: Thursday, December 15, 2016 - thru games of December 9

## Prediction Accuracy

PICKING WINNERS STRAIGHT UP IN GAMES/WINNERS AND WITHIN 7 PTS. ON SPREAD: LAST WEEK: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 19% right and within 7 pts.(3/16) SEASON TOTAL: 2090 right, 447 wrong - 82% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(864/2537) SEASON PERFORMANCE WEEK-BY-WEEK: Week 0: 2 right, 0 wrong - 100% right; 100% right and within 7 pts.(2/2) Week 1: 152 right, 48 wrong - 76% right; 27% right and within 7 pts.(53/200) Week 2: 154 right, 53 wrong - 74% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(64/207) Week 3: 153 right, 35 wrong - 81% right; 36% right and within 7 pts.(68/188) Week 4: 163 right, 38 wrong - 81% right; 31% right and within 7 pts.(63/201) Week 5: 154 right, 25 wrong - 86% right; 37% right and within 7 pts.(66/179) Week 6: 163 right, 27 wrong - 86% right; 36% right and within 7 pts.(69/190) Week 7: 128 right, 32 wrong - 80% right; 40% right and within 7 pts.(64/160) Week 8: 156 right, 32 wrong - 83% right; 30% right and within 7 pts.(57/188) Week 9: 129 right, 23 wrong - 85% right; 39% right and within 7 pts.(59/152) Week 10: 162 right, 32 wrong - 84% right; 41% right and within 7 pts.(80/194) Week 11: 162 right, 34 wrong - 83% right; 32% right and within 7 pts.(63/196) Week 12: 165 right, 26 wrong - 86% right; 37% right and within 7 pts.(71/191) Week 13: 41 right, 5 wrong - 89% right; 24% right and within 7 pts.(11/46) Playoff 1:114 right, 17 wrong - 87% right; 32% right and within 7 pts.(42/131) Playoff 2: 55 right, 9 wrong - 86% right; 28% right and within 7 pts.(18/64) Playoff 3: 26 right, 6 wrong - 81% right; 34% right and within 7 pts.(11/32) Regionals: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 19% right and within 7 pts.(3/16)

I calculate the spread for each game by taking the power ratings of the two teams and adding in two points for the home team. If the margin of victory exceeds 42 points, take the difference between the forecast spread and 42 and divide by 2 to get my projected spread, due to the new NC mercy rule(running clock once spread hits 42). For example, 60 points would become 51; 50 points would become 46, etc. The predictions will become more accurate as the season progresses.

## Last Week's Results

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - FRIDAY DECEMBER 9, 2016 | ||

REGIONAL FINALS | ||

4AA | Pick | Score |

East - Wake Forest (14-0) at Middle Creek (14-0) | M by 8 | W 20-17(ot) |

West - Vance (13-1) at Page (13-1) | P by 5 | P 49-14 |

| ||

4A | Pick | Score |

East - Cape Fear (14-0) at Scotland (14-0) | S by 8 | C 27-7 |

West - Dudley (13-1) at Charlotte Catholic (13-1) | D by 3 | D 21-10 |

| ||

3AA | Pick | Score |

East - Jacksonville (10-4) at Eastern Guilford (14-0) | E by 14 | E 26-21 |

West - Hickory Ridge (12-2) at Weddington (11-3) | W by 13 | W 24-7 |

| ||

3A | Pick | Score |

East - Rocky Mount (12-2) at Havelock (13-1) | H by 5 | R 34-33(3ot) |

West - South Point (10-4) at Hibriten (14-0) | H by 7 | S 26-0 |

| ||

2AA | Pick | Score |

East - Northside(Jacksonville) (11-3) at East Duplin (13-1) | E by 2 | N 14-7 |

West - Monroe (12-2) at Shelby (14-0) | S by 12 | S 28-7 |

| ||

2A | Pick | Score |

East - Edenton Holmes (12-2) at South Columbus (12-2) | E by 13 | E 50-14 |

West - Lincolnton (13-1) at Reidsville (14-0) | R by 11 | R 28-7 |

| ||

1AA | Pick | Score |

East - Tarboro (12-2) at Wallace-Rose Hill (13-1) | W by 10 | W 35-17 |

West - Mount Airy (13-1) at West Montgomery (14-0) | W by 7 | W 31-21 |

| ||

1A | Pick | Score |

East - Southside (10-4) at Plymouth (11-3) | P by 11 | P 7-2 |

West - Mitchell (13-1) at Murphy (13-1) | Mur by 3 | Mur 38-13 |

For the week: | 11/16 | 68.8% |

Correct pick and 7 points or less: | 3/16 | 18.8% |

## This Week's Picks

NCHSAA PLAYOFFS - DECEMBER 16-17, 2016 | |

STATE CHAMPIONSHIPS | Pick |

4AA - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Wake Forest (15-0) vs. Page (14-1) | P by 2 |

| |

4A - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Cape Fear (15-0) vs. Dudley (14-1) | D by 10 |

| |

3AA - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

Eastern Guilford (15-0) vs. Weddington (12-3) | W by 6 |

| |

3A - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

Rocky Mount (13-2) vs. South Point (11-4) | R by 6 |

| |

2AA - at N.C. State Univ. | |

Northside(Jacksonville) (12-3) vs. Shelby (15-0) | S by 12 |

| |

2A - at Wake Forest Univ. | |

Edenton Holmes (13-2) vs. Reidsville (15-0) | R by 8 |

| |

1AA - at Univ. of North Carolina | |

Wallace-Rose Hill (14-1) vs. West Montgomery (15-0) | WRH by 15 |

| |

1A - at Univ. of North Carolina | |

Plymouth (12-3) vs. Murphy (14-1) | M by 16 |