## Last updated: Monday, January 29, 2024 - thru games of January 28 Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team. These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors, including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.

## In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals. PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES/PICKING WINNER AND MARGIN WITHIN 8 POINTS: SEASON TO DATE: 172 right, 112 wrong - 61% right; 38% right and within 8 points (109/284) WEEK BY WEEK: Week 1: 8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16) Week 2: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 44% right and within 8 points (7/16) Week 3: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16) Week 4: 7 right, 9 wrong - 44% right; 25% right and within 8 points (4/16) Week 5: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14) Week 6: 11 right, 4 wrong - 73% right; 53% right and within 8 points (8/15) Week 7: 7 right, 6 wrong - 54% right; 31% right and within 8 points (4/13) Week 8: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16) Week 9: 12 right, 2 wrong - 86% right; 50% right and within 8 points (7/14) Week 10: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14) Week 11: 9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right; 36% right and within 8 points (5/14) Week 12: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16) Week 13: 6 right, 7 wrong - 46% right; 38% right and within 8 points (5/13) Week 14: 7 right, 8 wrong - 47% right; 20% right and within 8 points (3/15) Week 15: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16) Week 16: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16) Week 17: 12 right, 4 wrong - 75% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16) Week 18: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16) Wild Card: 4 right, 2 wrong - 67% right; 17% right and within 8 points (1/6) Divisional: 3 right, 1 wrong - 75% right; 50% right and within 8 points (2/4) Conference: 1 right, 1 wrong - 50% right; 50% right and within 8 points (1/2)

Super Bowl LVIII - at Las Vegas, NV | |

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 11 | PICK |

San Francisco (14-5) vs. Kansas City (14-6) (6:30) | Even - S |

Playoffs - Conference Championships | ||

SUNDAY JANUARY 28 | PICK | SCORE |

AFC - #3 Kansas City (13-6) at #1 Baltimore (14-4) (3:00) | B by 7 | K 17-10 |

NFC - #3 Detroit (14-5) at #1 San Francisco (13-5) (6:30) | S by 5 | S 34-31 |

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Correct winners: | 1/2 | |

Correct winner and within 8 points: | 1/2 |

Team | W | L | T | RATING | LW | |

1 | Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 5 | 0 | 57.5 | 1 |

2 | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 5 | 0 | 57.3 | 2 |

3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | 6 | 0 | 57.1 | 3 |

4 | Detroit Lions | 14 | 6 | 0 | 55.3 | 4 |

5 | Buffalo Bills | 12 | 7 | 0 | 53.9 | 5 |

6 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 53.4 | 6 |

7 | Dallas Cowboys | 12 | 6 | 0 | 52.7 | 7 |

8 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.4 | 8 |

9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 51.6 | 10 |

10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.5 | 9 |

11 | Miami Dolphins | 11 | 7 | 0 | 51.4 | 13 |

12 | Cleveland Browns | 11 | 7 | 0 | 51.4 | 11 |

13 | Houston Texans | 11 | 8 | 0 | 51.3 | 12 |

14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.2 | 14 |

15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 50.8 | 15 |

16 | New Orleans Saints | 9 | 8 | 0 | 50.6 | 16 |

17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 7 | 0 | 50.1 | 17 |

18 | Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 8 | 0 | 49.9 | 18 |

19 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 10 | 0 | 49.6 | 19 |

20 | Las Vegas Raiders | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.4 | 20 |

21 | Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 8 | 0 | 49.0 | 21 |

22 | Denver Broncos | 8 | 9 | 0 | 48.9 | 22 |

23 | Chicago Bears | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.6 | 23 |

24 | Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 12 | 0 | 47.5 | 24 |

25 | Tennessee Titans | 6 | 11 | 0 | 46.9 | 25 |

26 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 46.2 | 26 |

27 | New York Jets | 7 | 10 | 0 | 46.0 | 27 |

28 | New York Giants | 6 | 11 | 0 | 45.7 | 28 |

29 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.9 | 29 |

30 | New England Patriots | 4 | 13 | 0 | 43.8 | 30 |

31 | Washington Commanders | 4 | 13 | 0 | 42.4 | 31 |

32 | Carolina Panthers | 2 | 15 | 0 | 41.3 | 32 |

## PF = Points for PA = Points against SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.

NFL 2023 | ||||||||

AFC EAST(6) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS | |

5 | Buffalo Bills | 12 | 7 | 0 | 53.9 | 506 | 355 | 28 |

11 | Miami Dolphins | 11 | 7 | 0 | 51.4 | 503 | 417 | 26 |

27 | New York Jets | 7 | 10 | 0 | 46.0 | 268 | 355 | 29 |

30 | New England Patriots | 4 | 13 | 0 | 43.8 | 236 | 366 | 24 |

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AFC NORTH(1) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS | |

1 | Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 5 | 0 | 57.5 | 527 | 307 | 11 |

10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.5 | 366 | 384 | 1 |

12 | Cleveland Browns | 11 | 7 | 0 | 51.4 | 410 | 407 | 7 |

15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 50.8 | 321 | 355 | 2 |

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AFC SOUTH(5) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS | |

13 | Houston Texans | 11 | 8 | 0 | 51.3 | 432 | 401 | 22 |

14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.2 | 377 | 371 | 12 |

21 | Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 8 | 0 | 49.0 | 396 | 415 | 27 |

25 | Tennessee Titans | 6 | 11 | 0 | 46.9 | 305 | 367 | 17 |

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AFC WEST(4) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS | |

3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | 6 | 0 | 57.1 | 441 | 335 | 5 |

20 | Las Vegas Raiders | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.4 | 332 | 331 | 20 |

22 | Denver Broncos | 8 | 9 | 0 | 48.9 | 357 | 413 | 18 |

24 | Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 12 | 0 | 47.5 | 346 | 398 | 10 |

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NFC EAST(7) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS | |

7 | Dallas Cowboys | 12 | 6 | 0 | 52.7 | 541 | 363 | 31 |

17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 7 | 0 | 50.1 | 442 | 460 | 19 |

28 | New York Giants | 6 | 11 | 0 | 45.7 | 266 | 407 | 23 |

31 | Washington Commanders | 4 | 13 | 0 | 42.4 | 329 | 518 | 25 |

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NFC NORTH(2) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS | |

4 | Detroit Lions | 14 | 6 | 0 | 55.3 | 547 | 475 | 9 |

6 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 53.4 | 452 | 406 | 3 |

19 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 10 | 0 | 49.6 | 344 | 362 | 8 |

23 | Chicago Bears | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.6 | 360 | 379 | 21 |

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NFC SOUTH(8) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS | |

9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 51.6 | 403 | 365 | 16 |

16 | New Orleans Saints | 9 | 8 | 0 | 50.6 | 402 | 327 | 30 |

26 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 46.2 | 321 | 373 | 32 |

32 | Carolina Panthers | 2 | 15 | 0 | 41.3 | 236 | 416 | 13 |

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NFC WEST(3) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS | |

2 | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 5 | 0 | 57.3 | 549 | 350 | 15 |

8 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.4 | 427 | 401 | 4 |

18 | Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 8 | 0 | 49.9 | 364 | 402 | 14 |

29 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.9 | 330 | 455 | 6 |