2022 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions
Last updated: Tuesday, February 14, 2023 - final ratings
Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by
each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point
spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the
two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team.
These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors,
including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.
NFL Football Predictions
In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded
to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this
week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals.
PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES:
SEASON TO DATE: 183 right, 99 wrong - 65% right; 44% right and within 8 points (123/282)
WEEK BY WEEK:
Week 1: 10 right, 5 wrong - 67% right; 33% right and within 8 points (5/15) (1 tie - doesn't count)
Week 2: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16)
Week 3: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16)
Week 4: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 44% right and within 8 points (7/16)
Week 5: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 44% right and within 8 points (7/16)
Week 6: 6 right, 8 wrong - 43% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14)
Week 7: 9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14)
Week 8: 8 right, 7 wrong - 53% right; 33% right and within 8 points (5/15)
Week 9: 7 right, 6 wrong - 54% right; 31% right and within 8 points (4/13)
Week 10: 7 right, 7 wrong - 50% right; 36% right and within 8 points (5/14)
Week 11: 10 right, 4 wrong - 71% right; 64% right and within 8 points (9/14)
Week 12: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 56% right and within 8 points (9/16)
Week 13: 12 right, 2 wrong - 86% right; 36% right and within 8 points (5/14) (1 tie - doesn't count)
Week 14: 9 right, 4 wrong - 69% right; 38% right and within 8 points (5/13)
Week 15: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16)
Week 16: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 44% right and within 8 points (7/16)
Week 17: 12 right, 3 wrong - 80% right; 27% right and within 8 points (4/15) (1 game canceled)
Week 18: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16)
Wild Card: 5 right, 1 wrong - 83% right; 50% right and within 8 points (3/6)
Divisional: 3 right, 1 wrong - 75% right; 50% right and within 8 points (2/4)
Conference: 2 right, 0 wrong - 100% right; 50% right and within 8 points (1/2)
Super Bowl: 1 right, 0 wrong - 0% right, 0% right and within 8 points (0/1)
Playoff Summary
| Playoffs - Wild Card Round | |
|
| SATURDAY JANUARY 14 | PICK | SCORE
|
| NFC: #7 Seattle (9-8) at #2 San Francisco (13-4) (4:30) | SF by 9 | SF 41-23
|
| AFC: #5 LA Chargers (10-7) at #4 Jacksonville (9-8) (8:15) | J by 4 | J 31-30
|
| | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 15 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #7 Miami (9-8) at #2 Buffalo (13-3) (1:00) | B by 10 | B 34-31
|
| NFC: #6 NY Giants (9-7-1) at #3 Minnesota (13-4) (4:30) | M by 5 | N 31-24
|
| AFC: #6 Baltimore (10-7) at #3 Cincinnati (12-4) (8:15) | C by 7 | C 24-17
|
| | |
|
| MONDAY JANUARY 16 | PICK | SCORE
|
| NFC: #5 Dallas (12-5) at #4 Tampa Bay (8-9) (8:15) | D by 3 | D 31-14
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 5/6 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 3/6 |
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| Playoffs - Divisional Round | |
|
| SATURDAY JANUARY 21 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #4 Jacksonville (10-8) at #1 Kansas City (14-3) (4:30) | K by 8 | K 27-20
|
| NFC: #6 NY Giants (10-7-1) at #1 Philadelphia (14-3) (8:15) | P by 8 | P 38-7
|
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|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 22 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #3 Cincinnati (13-4) at #2 Buffalo (14-3) (3:00) | B by 4 | C 27-10
|
| NFC: #5 Dallas (13-5) at #2 San Francisco (14-4) (6:30) | S by 2 | S 19-12
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 3/4 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 2/4 |
|
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|
| Playoffs - Conference Championships | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 29 | PICK | SCORE
|
| NFC - #2 San Francisco (15-4) at #1 Philadelphia (15-3) (3:00) | P by 4 | P 31-7
|
| AFC - #3 Cincinnati (14-4) at #1 Kansas City (15-3) (6:30) | K by 1 | K 23-20
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 2/2 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 1/2 |
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| Super Bowl LVII - at Glendale, AZ | |
|
| SUNDAY FEBRUARY 12 | PICK | SCORE
|
| Kansas City (16-3) vs. Philadelphia (16-3) (6:30) | P by 1 | K 38-35
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 0/1 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 0/1 |
|
NFL Team Rankings
| | Team | W | L | T | RATING
|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 14 | 5 | 0 | 58.0
|
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 16 | 4 | 0 | 57.1
|
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | 3 | 0 | 57.1
|
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 14 | 4 | 0 | 56.6
|
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 13 | 6 | 0 | 55.6
|
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 15 | 5 | 0 | 55.1
|
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.7
|
| 8 | Miami Dolphins | 9 | 9 | 0 | 51.4
|
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 13 | 5 | 0 | 51.3
|
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.2
|
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 | 9 | 0 | 51.2
|
| 12 | New York Giants | 10 | 8 | 1 | 50.8
|
| 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 8 | 0 | 50.7
|
| 14 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 50.4
|
| 15 | New England Patriots | 8 | 9 | 0 | 50.3
|
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.8
|
| 17 | Washington Commanders | 8 | 8 | 1 | 49.8
|
| 18 | New York Jets | 7 | 10 | 0 | 49.3
|
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 7 | 10 | 0 | 49.2
|
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 9 | 0 | 48.9
|
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.3
|
| 22 | New Orleans Saints | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.3
|
| 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 10 | 0 | 48.1
|
| 24 | Carolina Panthers | 7 | 10 | 0 | 47.7
|
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | 6 | 11 | 0 | 47.3
|
| 26 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 47.0
|
| 27 | Denver Broncos | 5 | 12 | 0 | 45.9
|
| 28 | Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 12 | 0 | 45.3
|
| 29 | Indianapolis Colts | 4 | 12 | 1 | 44.4
|
| 30 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.3
|
| 31 | Chicago Bears | 3 | 14 | 0 | 43.6
|
| 32 | Houston Texans | 3 | 13 | 1 | 43.1
|
NFL Teams By Division
PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.
| | NFL 2022 | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC EAST(3) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 14 | 4 | 0 | 56.6 | 499 | 344 | 12
|
| 8 | Miami Dolphins | 9 | 9 | 0 | 51.4 | 428 | 433 | 2
|
| 15 | New England Patriots | 8 | 9 | 0 | 50.3 | 364 | 347 | 9
|
| 18 | New York Jets | 7 | 10 | 0 | 49.3 | 296 | 316 | 4
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC NORTH(2) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 14 | 5 | 0 | 58.0 | 489 | 372 | 1
|
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.7 | 367 | 339 | 3
|
| 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 8 | 0 | 50.7 | 308 | 346 | 5
|
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 7 | 10 | 0 | 49.2 | 361 | 381 | 8
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC SOUTH(8) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 | 9 | 0 | 51.2 | 455 | 407 | 16
|
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.3 | 298 | 359 | 11
|
| 29 | Indianapolis Colts | 4 | 12 | 1 | 44.4 | 289 | 427 | 18
|
| 32 | Houston Texans | 3 | 13 | 1 | 43.1 | 289 | 420 | 21
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC WEST(4) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | 3 | 0 | 57.1 | 584 | 444 | 19
|
| 14 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 50.4 | 421 | 415 | 25
|
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | 6 | 11 | 0 | 47.3 | 395 | 418 | 27
|
| 27 | Denver Broncos | 5 | 12 | 0 | 45.9 | 287 | 359 | 26
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC EAST(1) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 16 | 4 | 0 | 57.1 | 581 | 396 | 22
|
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 13 | 6 | 0 | 55.6 | 510 | 375 | 10
|
| 12 | New York Giants | 10 | 8 | 1 | 50.8 | 403 | 433 | 6
|
| 17 | Washington Commanders | 8 | 8 | 1 | 49.8 | 321 | 343 | 13
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC NORTH(5) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 13 | 5 | 0 | 51.3 | 448 | 458 | 29
|
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.2 | 453 | 427 | 15
|
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.8 | 370 | 371 | 17
|
| 31 | Chicago Bears | 3 | 14 | 0 | 43.6 | 326 | 463 | 7
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC SOUTH(7) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 22 | New Orleans Saints | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.3 | 330 | 345 | 23
|
| 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 10 | 0 | 48.1 | 327 | 389 | 14
|
| 24 | Carolina Panthers | 7 | 10 | 0 | 47.7 | 347 | 374 | 30
|
| 26 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 47.0 | 365 | 386 | 31
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC WEST(6) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 15 | 5 | 0 | 55.1 | 517 | 343 | 32
|
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 9 | 0 | 48.9 | 430 | 442 | 28
|
| 28 | Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 12 | 0 | 45.3 | 307 | 384 | 24
|
| 30 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.3 | 340 | 449 | 20
|