2017 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions



Last updated: Tuesday, December 12, 2017 - thru games of December 11


Welcome to my pro football power ratings.  I will be updating this page by
each Wednesday night during the season.  To determine the approximate point
spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the
two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team.


These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors,
including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.


NFL Team Rankings

LW = Last week's ranking

Team W L T Rating LW
1 Philadelphia Eagles 11 2 0 58.4 4
2 New Orleans Saints 9 4 0 57.2 2
3 Minnesota Vikings 10 3 0 57.0 3
4 New England Patriots 10 3 0 56.9 1
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 2 0 56.3 6
6 Los Angeles Rams 9 4 0 55.6 5
7 Carolina Panthers 9 4 0 55.2 8
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 4 0 54.7 7
9 Atlanta Falcons 8 5 0 53.7 11
10 Baltimore Ravens 7 6 0 53.0 9
11 Seattle Seahawks 8 5 0 52.9 10
12 Los Angeles Chargers 7 6 0 52.0 14
13 Kansas City Chiefs 7 6 0 51.8 12
14 Detroit Lions 7 6 0 51.6 13
15 Dallas Cowboys 7 6 0 50.4 17
16 Green Bay Packers 7 6 0 49.6 16
17 Tennessee Titans 8 5 0 49.3 15
18 Washington Redskins 5 8 0 48.7 18
19 Buffalo Bills 7 6 0 48.4 19
20 Miami Dolphins 6 7 0 48.1 25
21 Chicago Bears 4 9 0 47.6 26
22 Oakland Raiders 6 7 0 47.4 20
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 9 0 47.0 23
24 Arizona Cardinals 6 7 0 46.4 27
25 New York Jets 5 8 0 46.4 21
26 Houston Texans 4 9 0 45.8 22
27 Cincinnati Bengals 5 8 0 45.5 24
28 Denver Broncos 4 9 0 44.5 28
29 San Francisco 49ers 3 10 0 44.1 31
30 Indianapolis Colts 3 10 0 42.9 29
31 New York Giants 2 11 0 42.4 30
32 Cleveland Browns 0 13 0 39.5 32

NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest).  SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.

NFL 2017
AFC EAST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 New England Patriots 10 3 0 56.9 368 250 18
19 Buffalo Bills 7 6 0 48.4 240 290 22
20 Miami Dolphins 6 7 0 48.1 236 318 6
25 New York Jets 5 8 0 46.4 266 311 24

AFC NORTH(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 2 0 56.3 320 251 21
10 Baltimore Ravens 7 6 0 53.0 318 246 13
27 Cincinnati Bengals 5 8 0 45.5 226 271 31
32 Cleveland Browns 0 13 0 39.5 197 335 12

AFC SOUTH(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 4 0 54.7 329 202 30
17 Tennessee Titans 8 5 0 49.3 273 294 32
26 Houston Texans 4 9 0 45.8 312 335 25
30 Indianapolis Colts 3 10 0 42.9 212 343 19

AFC WEST(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
12 Los Angeles Chargers 7 6 0 52.0 298 225 29
13 Kansas City Chiefs 7 6 0 51.8 329 289 15
22 Oakland Raiders 6 7 0 47.4 264 304 27
28 Denver Broncos 4 9 0 44.5 229 315 20


NFC EAST(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 Philadelphia Eagles 11 2 0 58.4 404 250 23
15 Dallas Cowboys 7 6 0 50.4 316 294 28
18 Washington Redskins 5 8 0 48.7 285 344 1
31 New York Giants 2 11 0 42.4 199 321 10

NFC NORTH(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 Minnesota Vikings 10 3 0 57.0 309 235 5
14 Detroit Lions 7 6 0 51.6 338 329 8
16 Green Bay Packers 7 6 0 49.6 285 302 11
21 Chicago Bears 4 9 0 47.6 224 274 3

NFC SOUTH(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 New Orleans Saints 9 4 0 57.2 370 263 4
7 Carolina Panthers 9 4 0 55.2 300 262 2
9 Atlanta Falcons 8 5 0 53.7 294 261 7
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 9 0 47.0 264 312 9

NFC WEST(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 Los Angeles Rams 9 4 0 55.6 396 265 16
11 Seattle Seahawks 8 5 0 52.9 314 252 26
24 Arizona Cardinals 6 7 0 46.4 231 317 17
29 San Francisco 49ers 3 10 0 44.1 228 314 14


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I compare my results at picking games this season, rounded 
to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here).


PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES:

LAST WEEK:
Week 14:    8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16)


SEASON TO DATE:
Brian Simmons: 132 right, 76 wrong - 63% right, 36% right and within 7 points (75/208)


WEEK BY WEEK:
Week 1:   9 right, 6 wrong - 60% right, 33% right and within 7 points (5/15)
Week 2:   9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 25% right and within 7 points (4/16)
Week 3:  10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16)
Week 4:  10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 25% right and within 7 points (4/16)
Week 5:   7 right, 7 wrong - 50% right, 43% right and within 7 points (6/14)
Week 6:   5 right, 9 wrong - 36% right, 21% right and within 7 points (3/14)
Week 7:  12 right, 3 wrong - 80% right, 40% right and within 7 points (6/15)
Week 8:  11 right, 2 wrong - 85% right, 62% right and within 7 points (8/13)
Week 9:   6 right, 7 wrong - 46% right, 23% right and within 7 points (3/13)
Week 10: 11 right, 3 wrong - 79% right, 36% right and within 7 points (5/14)
Week 11:  9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right, 21% right and within 7 points (3/14)
Week 12: 12 right, 4 wrong - 75% right, 63% right and within 7 points (10/16)
Week 13: 13 right, 3 wrong - 81% right, 50% right and within 7 points (8/16)
Week 14:  8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16)

Last Week's Results


WEEK 14
THURSDAY DECEMBER 7 PICK SCORE
New Orleans (9-3) at Atlanta (7-5) (8:25) N by 2 A 20-17

SUNDAY DECEMBER 10 PICK SCORE
Chicago (3-9) at Cincinnati (5-7) (1:00) Cin by 4 Chi 33-7
Dallas (6-6) at NY Giants (2-10) D by 3 D 30-10
Detroit (6-6) at Tampa Bay (4-8) D by 1 D 24-21
Green Bay (6-6) at Cleveland (0-12) G by 7 G 27-21(ot)
Indianapolis (3-9) at Buffalo (6-6) B by 9 B 13-7(ot)
Minnesota (10-2) at Carolina (8-4) Even - M C 31-24
Oakland (6-6) at Kansas City (6-6) K by 7 K 26-15
San Francisco (2-10) at Houston (4-8) H by 8 S 26-16
NY Jets (5-7) at Denver (3-9) (4:05) N by 1 D 23-0
Tennessee (8-4) at Arizona (5-7) T by 2 A 12-7
Washington (5-7) at LA Chargers (6-6) L by 5 L 30-13
Philadelphia (10-2) at LA Rams (9-3) (4:25) L by 2 P 43-35
Seattle (8-4) at Jacksonville (8-4) J by 5 J 30-24
Baltimore (7-5) at Pittsburgh (10-2) (8:30) P by 6 P 39-38

MONDAY DECEMBER 11 PICK SCORE
New England (10-2) at Miami (5-7) (8:30) N by 8 M 27-20
Correct winners: 8/16
Correct winner and within 7 points: 5/16



This Week's Picks

WEEK 15
THURSDAY DECEMBER 14 PICK
Denver (4-9) at Indianapolis (3-10) (8:25) I by 1

SATURDAY DECEMBER 16 PICK
Chicago (4-9) at Detroit (7-6) (4:30) D by 7
LA Chargers (7-6) at Kansas City (7-6) (8:25) K by 3

SUNDAY DECEMBER 17 PICK
Arizona (6-7) at Washington (5-8) (1:00) W by 5
Baltimore (7-6) at Cleveland (0-13) B by 10
Cincinnati (5-8) at Minnesota (10-3) M by 14
Green Bay (7-6) at Carolina (9-4) C by 9
Houston (4-9) at Jacksonville (9-4) J by 12
Miami (6-7) at Buffalo (7-6) B by 3
NY Jets (5-8) at New Orleans (9-4) NO by 14
Philadelphia (11-2) at NY Giants (2-11) P by 13
LA Rams (9-4) at Seattle (8-5) (4:05) Even - S
New England (10-3) at Pittsburgh (11-2) (4:25) P by 2
Tennessee (8-5) at San Francisco (3-10) T by 2
Dallas (7-6) at Oakland (6-7) (8:30) Even - O

MONDAY DECEMBER 18 PICK
Atlanta (8-5) at Tampa Bay (4-9) (8:30) A by 4