2018 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions

Last updated: Tuesday, November 13, 2018 - thru games of November 12 Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team. Pre-season ratings are utliized early in the season. These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors, including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.


NFL Team Rankings

LW = Last week's ranking

Team W L T RATING LW
1 New Orleans Saints 8 1 0 59.0 3
2 Kansas City Chiefs 9 1 0 58.5 1
3 Los Angeles Rams 9 1 0 57.9 2
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 6 2 1 56.8 5
5 Los Angeles Chargers 7 2 0 55.0 6
6 New England Patriots 7 3 0 54.3 4
7 Chicago Bears 6 3 0 53.8 8
8 Baltimore Ravens 4 5 0 53.4 9
9 Houston Texans 6 3 0 52.4 10
10 Tennessee Titans 5 4 0 52.2 16
11 Carolina Panthers 6 3 0 52.1 7
12 Seattle Seahawks 4 5 0 52.1 11
13 Minnesota Vikings 5 3 1 51.6 13
14 Washington Redskins 6 3 0 50.7 19
15 Green Bay Packers 4 4 1 50.5 17
16 Dallas Cowboys 4 5 0 50.2 21
17 Philadelphia Eagles 4 5 0 49.9 12
18 Atlanta Falcons 4 5 0 49.6 14
19 Indianapolis Colts 4 5 0 49.1 18
20 Cincinnati Bengals 5 4 0 48.7 15
21 Denver Broncos 3 6 0 48.6 20
22 Cleveland Browns 3 6 1 47.4 26
23 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 6 0 47.3 23
24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 6 0 46.5 22
25 Detroit Lions 3 6 0 46.3 24
26 Miami Dolphins 5 5 0 45.4 25
27 New York Giants 2 7 0 45.2 29
28 Buffalo Bills 3 7 0 44.7 31
29 San Francisco 49ers 2 8 0 44.7 27
30 New York Jets 3 7 0 43.1 28
31 Arizona Cardinals 2 7 0 43.0 30
32 Oakland Raiders 1 8 0 40.2 32

NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for PA = Points against SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.


NFL 2018
AFC EAST(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 New England Patriots 7 3 0 54.3 280 236 17
26 Miami Dolphins 5 5 0 45.4 199 256 28
28 Buffalo Bills 3 7 0 44.7 137 251 3
30 New York Jets 3 7 0 43.1 208 254 31

AFC NORTH(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 6 2 1 56.8 279 209 12
8 Baltimore Ravens 4 5 0 53.4 213 160 2
20 Cincinnati Bengals 5 4 0 48.7 235 288 4
22 Cleveland Browns 3 6 1 47.4 218 263 5

AFC SOUTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
9 Houston Texans 6 3 0 52.4 216 184 26
10 Tennessee Titans 5 4 0 52.2 168 151 15
19 Indianapolis Colts 4 5 0 49.1 260 239 30
23 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 6 0 47.3 160 199 11

AFC WEST(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 Kansas City Chiefs 9 1 0 58.5 353 240 22
5 Los Angeles Chargers 7 2 0 55.0 240 186 23
21 Denver Broncos 3 6 0 48.6 205 213 9
32 Oakland Raiders 1 8 0 40.2 147 272 10


NFC EAST(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
14 Washington Redskins 6 3 0 50.7 176 175 24
16 Dallas Cowboys 4 5 0 50.2 181 171 16
17 Philadelphia Eagles 4 5 0 49.9 198 183 27
27 New York Giants 2 7 0 45.2 177 228 7

NFC NORTH(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
7 Chicago Bears 6 3 0 53.8 269 175 32
13 Minnesota Vikings 5 3 1 51.6 221 204 29
15 Green Bay Packers 4 4 1 50.5 223 216 21
25 Detroit Lions 3 6 0 46.3 202 244 18

NFC SOUTH(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 New Orleans Saints 8 1 0 59.0 330 232 13
11 Carolina Panthers 6 3 0 52.1 241 232 19
18 Atlanta Falcons 4 5 0 49.6 244 254 14
24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 6 0 46.5 232 291 1

NFC WEST(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 Los Angeles Rams 9 1 0 57.9 335 231 20
12 Seattle Seahawks 4 5 0 52.1 219 192 8
29 San Francisco 49ers 2 8 0 44.7 230 266 25
31 Arizona Cardinals 2 7 0 43.0 124 225 6


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals. PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES: LAST WEEK: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right, 29% right and within 7 points (4/14) SEASON TO DATE: 91 right, 55 wrong - 62% right, 37% right and within 7 points (54/146) WEEK BY WEEK: Week 1: 10 right, 5 wrong - 67% right, 40% right and within 7 points (6/15) Week 2: 8 right, 7 wrong - 53% right, 47% right and within 7 points (7/15) Week 3: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 44% right and within 7 points (7/16) Week 4: 11 right, 4 wrong - 73% right, 40% right and within 7 points (6/15) Week 5: 9 right, 6 wrong - 60% right, 27% right and within 7 points (4/15) Week 6: 10 right, 5 wrong - 67% right, 40% right and within 7 points (6/15) Week 7: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right, 29% right and within 7 points (4/14) Week 8: 10 right, 4 wrong - 71% right, 43% right and within 7 points (6/14) Week 9: 8 right, 5 wrong - 62% right, 31% right and within 7 points (4/13) Week 10: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right, 29% right and within 7 points (4/14)


Last Week's Results


WEEK 10
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8 PICK SCORE
Carolina (6-2) at Pittsburgh (5-2-1) (8:20) P by 5 P 52-21

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 11 PICK SCORE
Arizona (2-6) at Kansas City (8-1) (1:00) K by 20 K 26-14
Atlanta (4-4) at Cleveland (2-6-1) A by 2 C 28-16
Buffalo (2-7) at NY Jets (3-6) N by 6 B 41-10
Detroit (3-5) at Chicago (5-3) C by 9 C 34-22
Jacksonville (3-5) at Indianapolis (3-5) I by 5 I 29-26
New England (7-2) at Tennessee (4-4) N by 3 T 34-10
New Orleans (7-1) at Cincinnati (5-3) N by 4 N 51-14
Washington (5-3) at Tampa Bay (3-5) T by 2 W 16-3
LA Chargers (6-2) at Oakland (1-7) (4:05) L by 11 L 20-6
Miami (5-4) at Green Bay (3-4-1) (4:25) G by 6 G 31-12
Seattle (4-4) at LA Rams (8-1) L by 9 L 36-31
Dallas (3-5) at Philadelphia (4-4) (8:20) P by 6 D 27-20

MONDAY NOVEMBER 12 PICK SCORE
NY Giants (1-7) at San Francisco (2-7) (8:15) S by 5 N 27-23
Correct winners: 8/14
Correct winner and within 7 points: 4/14



This Week's Picks

WEEK 11
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15 PICK
Green Bay (4-4-1) at Seattle (4-5) (8:20) S by 5

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 18 PICK
Carolina (6-3) at Detroit (3-6) (1:00) C by 3
Cincinnati (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5) B by 8
Dallas (4-5) at Atlanta (4-5) A by 2
Houston (6-3) at Washington (6-3) W by 1
Pittsburgh (6-2-1) at Jacksonville (3-6) P by 6
Tampa Bay (3-6) at NY Giants (2-7) Even - T
Tennessee (5-4) at Indianapolis (4-5) Even - T
Denver (3-6) at LA Chargers (7-2) (4:05) L by 9
Oakland (1-8) at Arizona (2-7) A by 6
Philadelphia (4-5) at New Orleans (8-1) (4:25) N by 12
Minnesota (5-3-1) at Chicago (6-3) (8:20) C by 5

MONDAY NOVEMBER 19 PICK
Kansas City (9-1) at LA Rams (9-1) (8:15) L by 2