2017 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions



Last updated: Tuesday, October 10, 2017 - thru games of October 9


Welcome to my pro football power ratings.  I will be updating this page by
each Wednesday night during the season.  To determine the approximate point
spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the
two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team.


These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors,
including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.


NFL Team Rankings

LW = Last week's ranking

Team W L T Rating LW
1 Kansas City Chiefs 5 0 0 60.0 1
2 Atlanta Falcons 3 1 0 55.6 2
3 New England Patriots 3 2 0 55.4 4
4 Philadelphia Eagles 4 1 0 54.5 9
5 Green Bay Packers 4 1 0 54.1 8
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 2 0 54.1 18
7 Denver Broncos 3 1 0 53.5 5
8 Buffalo Bills 3 2 0 52.7 7
9 Carolina Panthers 4 1 0 52.7 16
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 3 2 0 52.7 3
11 New Orleans Saints 2 2 0 52.6 12
12 Washington Redskins 2 2 0 52.5 11
13 Seattle Seahawks 3 2 0 52.5 14
14 Houston Texans 2 3 0 52.2 13
15 Detroit Lions 3 2 0 52.2 6
16 Minnesota Vikings 3 2 0 50.6 17
17 Oakland Raiders 2 3 0 50.1 10
18 Dallas Cowboys 2 3 0 50.0 15
19 Cincinnati Bengals 2 3 0 49.9 22
20 Baltimore Ravens 3 2 0 49.6 24
21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 2 0 48.6 19
22 Tennessee Titans 2 3 0 48.4 20
23 Los Angeles Rams 3 2 0 47.9 21
24 Los Angeles Chargers 1 4 0 47.3 27
25 New York Jets 3 2 0 46.6 26
26 Miami Dolphins 2 2 0 46.5 28
27 New York Giants 0 5 0 45.7 23
28 Arizona Cardinals 2 3 0 44.6 25
29 Chicago Bears 1 4 0 43.4 29
30 San Francisco 49ers 0 5 0 42.5 31
31 Indianapolis Colts 2 3 0 41.9 30
32 Cleveland Browns 0 5 0 39.4 32

NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest).  SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.

NFL 2017
AFC EAST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 New England Patriots 3 2 0 55.4 148 142 4
8 Buffalo Bills 3 2 0 52.7 89 74 5
25 New York Jets 3 2 0 46.6 92 106 21
26 Miami Dolphins 2 2 0 46.5 41 67 17

AFC NORTH(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 3 2 0 52.7 99 89 27
19 Cincinnati Bengals 2 3 0 49.9 84 83 22
20 Baltimore Ravens 3 2 0 49.6 90 97 20
32 Cleveland Browns 0 5 0 39.4 77 124 29

AFC SOUTH(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 2 0 54.1 139 83 12
14 Houston Texans 2 3 0 52.2 144 130 3
22 Tennessee Titans 2 3 0 48.4 110 142 9
31 Indianapolis Colts 2 3 0 41.9 97 159 32

AFC WEST(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 Kansas City Chiefs 5 0 0 60.0 164 111 2
7 Denver Broncos 3 1 0 53.5 98 74 25
17 Oakland Raiders 2 3 0 50.1 108 109 13
24 Los Angeles Chargers 1 4 0 47.3 99 115 10


NFC EAST(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 Philadelphia Eagles 4 1 0 54.5 137 99 14
12 Washington Redskins 2 2 0 52.5 91 89 1
18 Dallas Cowboys 2 3 0 50.0 125 132 24
27 New York Giants 0 5 0 45.7 82 122 11

NFC NORTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
5 Green Bay Packers 4 1 0 54.1 137 112 16
15 Detroit Lions 3 2 0 52.2 123 97 19
16 Minnesota Vikings 3 2 0 50.6 99 93 18
29 Chicago Bears 1 4 0 43.4 78 124 7

NFC SOUTH(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 Atlanta Falcons 3 1 0 55.6 104 89 15
9 Carolina Panthers 4 1 0 52.7 105 94 8
11 New Orleans Saints 2 2 0 52.6 93 78 6
21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 2 0 48.6 85 83 31

NFC WEST(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
13 Seattle Seahawks 3 2 0 52.5 110 87 28
23 Los Angeles Rams 3 2 0 47.9 152 121 30
28 Arizona Cardinals 2 3 0 44.6 81 125 23
30 San Francisco 49ers 0 5 0 42.5 89 120 26


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I compare my results at picking games this season, rounded 
to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here).


PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES:

LAST WEEK:
Week 5:  7 right, 7 wrong - 50% right, 43% right and within 7 points (6/14)


SEASON TO DATE:
Brian Simmons:  45 right, 32 wrong - 58% right, 31% right and within 7 points (24/77)


WEEK BY WEEK:
Week 1:  9 right, 6 wrong - 60% right, 33% right and within 7 points (5/15)
Week 2:  9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 25% right and within 7 points (4/16)
Week 3: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16)
Week 4: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 25% right and within 7 points (4/16)
Week 5:  7 right, 7 wrong - 50% right, 43% right and within 7 points (6/14)

Last Week's Results


WEEK 5
THURSDAY OCTOBER 5 Pick Line Score
New England (2-2) at Tampa Bay (2-1) (8:25) N by 2 N by 3.5 N 19-14

SUNDAY OCTOBER 8 Pick Line Score
Arizona (2-2) at Philadelphia (3-1) (1:00) P by 10 P by 6 P 34-7
Buffalo (3-1) at Cincinnati (1-3) B by 2 C by 3 C 20-16
Carolina (3-1) at Detroit (3-1) D by 6 D by 2 C 27-24
Jacksonville (2-2) at Pittsburgh (3-1) P by 8 P by 7.5 J 30-9
LA Chargers (0-4) at NY Giants (0-4) N by 5 N by 3 L 27-22
NY Jets (2-2) at Cleveland (0-4) N by 4 N by 2 N 17-14
San Francisco (0-4) at Indianapolis (1-3) I by 3 I by 1.5 I 26-23(ot)
Tennessee (2-2) at Miami (1-2) T by 1 M by 1 M 16-10
Baltimore (2-2) at Oakland (2-2) (4:05) O by 9 O by 3 B 30-17
Seattle (2-2) at LA Rams (3-1) Even - S L by 2.5 S 16-10
Green Bay (3-1) at Dallas (2-2) (4:25) D by 1 D by 2.5 G 35-31
Kansas City (4-0) at Houston (2-2) (8:30) K by 4 K by 2 K 42-34

MONDAY OCTOBER 9 Pick Line Score
Minnesota (2-2) at Chicago (1-3) (8:30) M by 4 M by 3.5 M 20-17
Correct winners: 7/14 8/14
Correct winner and within 7 points: 6/14 7/14



This Week's Picks

WEEK 6
THURSDAY OCTOBER 12 Pick
Philadelphia (4-1) at Carolina (4-1) (8:25) C by 1

SUNDAY OCTOBER 15 Pick
Chicago (1-4) at Baltimore (3-2) (1:00) B by 9
Cleveland (0-5) at Houston (2-3) H by 16
Detroit (3-2) at New Orleans (2-2) N by 3
Green Bay (4-1) at Minnesota (3-2) G by 1
Miami (2-2) at Atlanta (3-1) A by 12
New England (3-2) at NY Jets (3-2) NE by 6
San Francisco (0-5) at Washington (2-2) W by 13
LA Rams (3-2) at Jacksonville (3-2) (4:05) J by 9
Tampa Bay (2-2) at Arizona (2-3) T by 1
LA Chargers (1-4) at Oakland (2-3) (4:25) O by 6
Pittsburgh (3-2) at Kansas City (5-0) K by 10
NY Giants (0-5) at Denver (3-1) (8:30) D by 11

MONDAY OCTOBER 16 Pick
Indianapolis (2-3) at Tennessee (2-3) (8:30) T by 9