2018 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions

Last updated: Wednesday, January 16, 2019 - thru games of January 13 Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team. Pre-season ratings are utliized early in the season. These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors, including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.


NFL Team Rankings

LW = Last week's ranking

Team W L T RATING LW
1 New Orleans Saints 14 3 0 57.6 1
2 Los Angeles Rams 14 3 0 56.9 2
3 Kansas City Chiefs 13 4 0 56.8 3
4 New England Patriots 12 5 0 55.2 5
5 Los Angeles Chargers 13 5 0 55.2 4
6 Chicago Bears 12 5 0 54.3 6
7 Baltimore Ravens 10 7 0 53.6 8
8 Indianapolis Colts 11 7 0 53.4 7
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 9 6 1 53.4 9
10 Philadelphia Eagles 10 8 0 53.1 10
11 Houston Texans 11 6 0 52.7 11
12 Seattle Seahawks 10 7 0 52.5 12
13 Dallas Cowboys 11 7 0 52.2 13
14 Tennessee Titans 9 7 0 51.3 14
15 Minnesota Vikings 8 7 1 50.9 15
16 Cleveland Browns 7 8 1 49.5 16
17 Carolina Panthers 7 9 0 49.4 17
18 Atlanta Falcons 7 9 0 49.0 18
19 Denver Broncos 6 10 0 48.2 19
20 Detroit Lions 6 10 0 47.4 20
21 Green Bay Packers 6 9 1 47.3 24
22 Cincinnati Bengals 6 10 0 47.2 22
23 Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11 0 47.2 21
24 Washington Redskins 7 9 0 47.1 23
25 New York Giants 5 11 0 47.0 25
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 11 0 46.5 26
27 Buffalo Bills 6 10 0 46.2 27
28 Miami Dolphins 7 9 0 45.1 28
29 San Francisco 49ers 4 12 0 44.5 29
30 New York Jets 4 12 0 43.7 30
31 Oakland Raiders 4 12 0 43.6 31
32 Arizona Cardinals 3 13 0 41.8 32

NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for PA = Points against SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.


NFL 2018
AFC EAST(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 New England Patriots 12 5 0 55.2 477 353 29
27 Buffalo Bills 6 10 0 46.2 269 374 17
28 Miami Dolphins 7 9 0 45.1 319 433 31
30 New York Jets 4 12 0 43.7 333 441 23

AFC NORTH(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
7 Baltimore Ravens 10 7 0 53.6 406 310 10
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 9 6 1 53.4 428 360 11
16 Cleveland Browns 7 8 1 49.5 359 392 8
22 Cincinnati Bengals 6 10 0 47.2 368 455 3

AFC SOUTH(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
8 Indianapolis Colts 11 7 0 53.4 467 382 15
11 Houston Texans 11 6 0 52.7 409 337 26
14 Tennessee Titans 9 7 0 51.3 310 303 16
23 Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11 0 47.2 245 316 4

AFC WEST(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 Kansas City Chiefs 13 4 0 56.8 596 434 22
5 Los Angeles Chargers 13 5 0 55.2 479 387 7
19 Denver Broncos 6 10 0 48.2 329 349 14
31 Oakland Raiders 4 12 0 43.6 290 467 2


NFC EAST(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
10 Philadelphia Eagles 10 8 0 53.1 397 383 1
13 Dallas Cowboys 11 7 0 52.2 385 376 5
24 Washington Redskins 7 9 0 47.1 281 359 19
25 New York Giants 5 11 0 47.0 369 412 9

NFC NORTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 Chicago Bears 12 5 0 54.3 436 299 32
15 Minnesota Vikings 8 7 1 50.9 360 341 24
20 Detroit Lions 6 10 0 47.4 324 360 27
21 Green Bay Packers 6 9 1 47.3 376 400 30

NFC SOUTH(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 New Orleans Saints 14 3 0 57.6 524 367 18
17 Carolina Panthers 7 9 0 49.4 376 382 12
18 Atlanta Falcons 7 9 0 49.0 414 423 21
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 11 0 46.5 396 464 6

NFC WEST(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 Los Angeles Rams 14 3 0 56.9 557 406 28
12 Seattle Seahawks 10 7 0 52.5 450 371 25
29 San Francisco 49ers 4 12 0 44.5 342 435 20
32 Arizona Cardinals 3 13 0 41.8 225 425 13


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals. PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES: LAST WEEK: 4 right, 0 wrong - 100% right, 50% right and within 7 points (2/4) SEASON TO DATE: 163 right, 99 wrong - 62% right, 37% right and within 7 points (98/262) WEEK BY WEEK: Week 1: 10 right, 5 wrong - 67% right, 40% right and within 7 points (6/15) (1 tie - not counted) Week 2: 8 right, 7 wrong - 53% right, 47% right and within 7 points (7/15) (1 tie - not counted) Week 3: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 44% right and within 7 points (7/16) Week 4: 11 right, 4 wrong - 73% right, 40% right and within 7 points (6/15) Week 5: 9 right, 6 wrong - 60% right, 27% right and within 7 points (4/15) Week 6: 10 right, 5 wrong - 67% right, 40% right and within 7 points (6/15) Week 7: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right, 29% right and within 7 points (4/14) Week 8: 10 right, 4 wrong - 71% right, 43% right and within 7 points (6/14) Week 9: 8 right, 5 wrong - 62% right, 31% right and within 7 points (4/13) Week 10: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right, 29% right and within 7 points (4/14) Week 11: 6 right, 7 wrong - 46% right, 38% right and within 7 points (5/13) Week 12: 12 right, 3 wrong - 80% right, 60% right and within 7 points (9/15) Week 13: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16) Week 14: 8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right, 25% right and within 7 points (4/16) Week 15: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right, 38% right and within 7 points (6/16) Week 16: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 50% right and within 7 points (8/16) Week 17: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right, 25% right and within 7 points (4/16) Playoffs: Wild Card: 1 right, 3 wrong - 25% right, 25% right and within 7 points (1/4) Divisional: 4 right, 0 wrong - 100% right, 50% right and within 7 points (2/4)


Last Week's Results


Playoffs - Divisional Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 12 PICK LINE SCORE
Indianapolis (11-6) at Kansas City (12-4) (4:35) K by 5 K by 4.5 K 31-13
Dallas (11-6) at LA Rams (13-3) (8:15) L by 7 L by 7 L 30-22

SUNDAY JANUARY 13 PICK LINE SCORE
LA Chargers (13-4) at New England (11-5) (1:05) N by 1 N by 4 N 41-28
Philadelphia (10-7) at New Orleans (13-3) (4:40) N by 7 N by 8.5 N 20-14
Correct winners: 4/4 4/4
Correct winner and within 7 points: 2/4 2/4



This Week's Picks

Playoffs - Conference Championships
SUNDAY JANUARY 20 PICK
NFC - LA Rams (14-3) at New Orleans (14-3) (3:05) N by 4
AFC - New England (12-5) at Kansas City (13-4) (6:40) K by 5