2014 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions

Last updated: Tuesday, February 3, 2015 - final ratings

Welcome to my pro football power ratings.  I will be updating this page by each Wednesday 
night during the season.  To determine the approximate point spread for a game, simply take 
the difference between the power ratings of the two teams in question and add 3 points for 
the home team.

These ratings are based on several factors, including win-loss record, schedule strength, 
and margin of victory in games.

NFL Team Rankings

LW = Last week's ranking

Team W L T Rating LW
1 New England Patriots 15 4 0 60.3 1
2 Seattle Seahawks 14 5 0 57.8 2
3 Green Bay Packers 13 5 0 56.6 3
4 Denver Broncos 12 5 0 55.8 4
5 Indianapolis Colts 13 6 0 55.2 5
6 Dallas Cowboys 13 5 0 55.0 6
7 Baltimore Ravens 11 7 0 54.9 7
8 Buffalo Bills 9 7 0 53.3 8
9 Kansas City Chiefs 9 7 0 53.2 9
10 Philadelphia Eagles 10 6 0 52.9 10
11 Detroit Lions 11 6 0 52.8 11
12 Arizona Cardinals 11 6 0 52.0 12
13 Cincinnati Bengals 10 6 1 51.8 13
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 6 0 51.8 14
15 Houston Texans 9 7 0 51.5 16
16 San Diego Chargers 9 7 0 51.5 15
17 Miami Dolphins 8 8 0 50.6 17
18 San Francisco 49ers 8 8 0 49.6 18
19 Carolina Panthers 8 9 1 49.4 19
20 Minnesota Vikings 7 9 0 48.2 20
21 St. Louis Rams 6 10 0 48.0 21
22 New Orleans Saints 7 9 0 47.6 22
23 New York Giants 6 10 0 47.6 23
24 Cleveland Browns 7 9 0 47.2 24
25 Atlanta Falcons 6 10 0 46.5 25
26 New York Jets 4 12 0 45.5 26
27 Chicago Bears 5 11 0 44.8 27
28 Oakland Raiders 3 13 0 43.1 28
29 Washington Redskins 4 12 0 42.5 29
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 13 0 41.7 30
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 14 0 41.4 31
32 Tennessee Titans 2 14 0 39.8 32


NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest).  SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.

NFL 2014
AFC EAST(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 New England Patriots 15 4 0 60.3 576 375 2
8 Buffalo Bills 9 7 0 53.3 343 289 5
17 Miami Dolphins 8 8 0 50.6 388 373 9
26 New York Jets 4 12 0 45.5 283 401 3

AFC NORTH(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
7 Baltimore Ravens 11 7 0 54.9 470 354 14
13 Cincinnati Bengals 10 6 1 51.8 375 370 13
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 6 0 51.8 453 398 31
24 Cleveland Browns 7 9 0 47.2 299 337 29

AFC SOUTH(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
5 Indianapolis Colts 13 6 0 55.2 515 437 6
15 Houston Texans 9 7 0 51.5 372 307 32
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 13 0 41.7 249 412 21
32 Tennessee Titans 2 14 0 39.8 254 438 20

AFC WEST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 Denver Broncos 12 5 0 55.8 495 378 4
9 Kansas City Chiefs 9 7 0 53.2 353 281 17
16 San Diego Chargers 9 7 0 51.5 348 348 10
28 Oakland Raiders 3 13 0 43.1 253 452 1


NFC EAST(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 Dallas Cowboys 13 5 0 55.0 512 398 24
10 Philadelphia Eagles 10 6 0 52.9 474 400 26
23 New York Giants 6 10 0 47.6 380 400 23
29 Washington Redskins 4 12 0 42.5 301 438 22

NFC NORTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 Green Bay Packers 13 5 0 56.6 534 397 8
11 Detroit Lions 11 6 0 52.8 341 306 19
20 Minnesota Vikings 7 9 0 48.2 325 343 25
27 Chicago Bears 5 11 0 44.8 319 442 11

NFC SOUTH(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
19 Carolina Panthers 8 9 1 49.4 383 421 18
22 New Orleans Saints 7 9 0 47.6 401 424 28
25 Atlanta Falcons 6 10 0 46.5 381 417 27
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 14 0 41.4 277 410 30

NFC WEST(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 Seattle Seahawks 14 5 0 57.8 477 321 7
12 Arizona Cardinals 11 6 0 52.0 326 326 12
18 San Francisco 49ers 8 8 0 49.6 306 340 16
21 St. Louis Rams 6 10 0 48.0 324 354 15


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I compare my results at picking games this season, against the
results of Jeff Sagarin of USA Today rounded to the nearest whole number (no
1/2 point spreads here).  The link to Sagarin website is provided here:
http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm


PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES:

SEASON TO DATE:
Brian Simmons: 177 right, 89 wrong - 67% right, 38% right and within 7 points (101/266)
Jeff Sagarin:  177 right, 89 wrong - 67% right, 39% right and within 7 points (105/266)

Playoff Summary

Playoffs - Wild Card Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 3 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Arizona (11-5) at Carolina (7-8-1) (4:35) A by 2 A by 3 C by 5 C 27-16
Baltimore (10-6) at Pittsburgh (11-5) (8:15) P by 3 P by 1 P by 3 B 30-17

SUNDAY JANUARY 4 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Cincinnati (10-5-1) at Indianapolis (11-5) (1:05) I by 4 I by 6 I by 4 I 26-10
Detroit (11-5) at Dallas (12-4) (4:40) Dal by 5 Dal by 5 Dal by 6 Dal 24-20
Correct winners: 2/4 2/4 3/4
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/4 1/4 2/4


Playoffs - Divisional Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 10 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Baltimore (11-6) at New England (12-4) (4:35) N by 6 N by 6 N by 7 N 35-31
Carolina (8-8-1) at Seattle (12-4) (8:15) S by 11 S by 12 S by 13 S 31-17

SUNDAY JANUARY 11 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Dallas (13-4) at Green Bay (12-4) (1:05) G by 4 G by 4 G by 6 G 26-21
Indianapolis (12-5) at Denver (12-4) (4:40) D by 6 D by 5 D by 9 I 24-13
Correct winners: 3/4 3/4 3/4
Correct winner and within 7 points: 3/4 3/4 3/4


Playoffs - Conference Championships
SUNDAY JANUARY 18 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
NFC: Green Bay (13-4) at Seattle (13-4) (3:05) S by 5 S by 5 S by 8 S 28-22(ot)
AFC: Indianapolis (13-5) at New England (13-4) (6:40) N by 5 N by 3 N by 7 N 45-7
Correct winners: 2/2 2/2 2/2
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/2 1/2 0/2
Super Bowl XLIX - at Glendale, AZ

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 1 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
New England (14-4) vs. Seattle (14-4) (6:30) N by 1 N by 1 Even - N N 28-24
Correct winners: 1/1 1/1 1/1
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/1 1/1 1/1