2016 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions


Last updated: Tuesday, February 7, 2017 - final ratings

Welcome to my pro football power ratings.  I will be updating this page by
each Wednesday night during the season.  To determine the approximate point
spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the
two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team.

These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors,
including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.


NFL Team Rankings

Team W L T Rating
1 New England Patriots 17 2 0 59.8
2 Atlanta Falcons 13 6 0 57.3
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 6 0 55.1
4 Dallas Cowboys 13 4 0 55.0
5 Kansas City Chiefs 12 5 0 54.7
6 Green Bay Packers 12 7 0 54.1
7 Denver Broncos 9 7 0 53.2
8 Oakland Raiders 12 5 0 52.9
9 Seattle Seahawks 11 6 1 52.8
10 New York Giants 11 6 0 51.7
11 Philadelphia Eagles 7 9 0 51.1
12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 7 0 50.9
13 Washington Redskins 8 7 1 50.9
14 Houston Texans 10 8 0 50.5
15 Baltimore Ravens 8 8 0 50.5
16 Minnesota Vikings 8 8 0 50.4
17 Cincinnati Bengals 6 9 1 50.2
18 New Orleans Saints 7 9 0 49.9
19 Arizona Cardinals 7 8 1 49.9
20 Indianapolis Colts 8 8 0 49.8
21 Tennessee Titans 9 7 0 49.7
22 Miami Dolphins 10 7 0 49.4
23 Buffalo Bills 7 9 0 48.8
24 Detroit Lions 9 8 0 48.8
25 Carolina Panthers 6 10 0 48.7
26 San Diego Chargers 5 11 0 47.8
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 13 0 44.6
28 New York Jets 5 11 0 44.5
29 Chicago Bears 3 13 0 43.1
30 Los Angeles Rams 4 12 0 42.6
31 San Francisco 49ers 2 14 0 40.8
32 Cleveland Browns 1 15 0 40.7


NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest).  SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.

NFL 2016
AFC EAST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 New England Patriots 17 2 0 59.8 545 311 29
22 Miami Dolphins 10 7 0 49.4 375 410 19
23 Buffalo Bills 7 9 0 48.8 399 378 30
28 New York Jets 5 11 0 44.5 275 409 18

AFC NORTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 6 0 55.1 464 391 1
15 Baltimore Ravens 8 8 0 50.5 343 321 22
17 Cincinnati Bengals 6 9 1 50.2 325 315 12
32 Cleveland Browns 1 15 0 40.7 264 452 5

AFC SOUTH(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
14 Houston Texans 10 8 0 50.5 322 376 4
20 Indianapolis Colts 8 8 0 49.8 411 392 28
21 Tennessee Titans 9 7 0 49.7 381 378 31
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 13 0 44.6 318 400 15

AFC WEST(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
5 Kansas City Chiefs 12 5 0 54.7 405 329 11
7 Denver Broncos 9 7 0 53.2 333 297 3
8 Oakland Raiders 12 5 0 52.9 430 412 6
26 San Diego Chargers 5 11 0 47.8 410 423 9


NFC EAST(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 Dallas Cowboys 13 4 0 55.0 452 340 25
10 New York Giants 11 6 0 51.7 323 322 13
11 Philadelphia Eagles 7 9 0 51.1 367 331 7
13 Washington Redskins 8 7 1 50.9 396 383 17

NFC NORTH(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 Green Bay Packers 12 7 0 54.1 525 476 2
16 Minnesota Vikings 8 8 0 50.4 327 307 27
24 Detroit Lions 9 8 0 48.8 352 384 20
29 Chicago Bears 3 13 0 43.1 279 399 21

NFC SOUTH(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 Atlanta Falcons 13 6 0 57.3 648 481 8
12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 7 0 50.9 354 369 16
18 New Orleans Saints 7 9 0 49.9 469 454 14
25 Carolina Panthers 6 10 0 48.7 369 402 10

NFC WEST(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
9 Seattle Seahawks 11 6 1 52.8 400 334 26
19 Arizona Cardinals 7 8 1 49.9 418 362 32
30 Los Angeles Rams 4 12 0 42.6 224 394 23
31 San Francisco 49ers 2 14 0 40.8 309 480 24


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I compare my results at picking games this season, against the
results of Jeff Sagarin of USA Today rounded to the nearest whole number (no
1/2 point spreads here).  The link to Sagarin website is provided here:
http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm


PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES:

SEASON TO DATE:
Brian Simmons: 171 right, 94 wrong - 65% right, 39% right and within 7 points (103/264)
Jeff Sagarin:  171 right, 94 wrong - 65% right, 38% right and within 7 points (101/264)

Playoff Summary


Playoffs - Wild Card Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 7 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Oakland (12-4) at Houston (9-7) (4:35) O by 2 O by 3 H by 4 H 27-14
Detroit (9-7) at Seattle (10-5-1) (8:15) S by 6 S by 6 S by 9 S 26-6

SUNDAY JANUARY 8 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Miami (10-6) at Pittsburgh (11-5) (1:05) P by 8 P by 9 P by 12 P 30-12
NY Giants (11-5) at Green Bay (10-6) (4:40) G by 3 G by 3 G by 5 G 38-13
Correct winners: 3/4 3/4 4/4
Correct winner and within 7 points: 0/4 0/4 1/4


Playoffs - Divisional Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 14 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Seattle (11-5-1) at Atlanta (11-5) (4:35) A by 6 A by 7 A by 6 A 36-20
Houston (10-7) at New England (14-2) (8:15) N by 10 N by 13 N by 16 N 34-16

SUNDAY JANUARY 15 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Pittsburgh (12-5) at Kansas City (12-4) (1:05) K by 4 K by 4 K by 2 P 18-16
Green Bay (11-6) at Dallas (13-3) (4:40) D by 5 D by 6 D by 5 G 34-31
Correct winners: 2/4 2/4 2/4
Correct winner and within 7 points: 0/4 1/4 1/4


Playoffs - Conference Championships
SUNDAY JANUARY 22 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Green Bay (12-6) at Atlanta (12-5) (3:05) A by 5 A by 6 A by 6 A 44-21
Pittsburgh (13-5) at New England (15-2) (6:40) N by 6 N by 7 N by 6 N 36-17
Correct winners: 2/2 2/2 2/2
Correct winner and within 7 points: 0/2 0/2 0/2


Super Bowl LI - at Houston, TX
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Atlanta (13-5) vs. New England (16-2) (6:30) N by 2 N by 1 N by 3 N 34-28(ot)
Correct winners: 1/1 1/1 1/1
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/1 1/1 1/1