2021 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions

Last updated: Tuesday, February 15, 2022 - final ratings Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team. These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors, including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.


NFL Football Predictions

In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals. PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES: SEASON TO DATE: 164 right, 120 wrong - 58% right, 31% right and within 7 points (89/284) WEEK BY WEEK: Week 1 - 6 right, 10 wrong - 38% right, 19% right and within 7 points (3/16) Week 2 - 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 50% right and within 7 points (8/16) Week 3 - 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 25% right and within 7 points (4/16) Week 4 - 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 38% right and within 7 points (6/16) Week 5 - 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16) Week 6 - 9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right, 21% right and within 7 points (3/14) Week 7 - 8 right, 5 wrong - 62% right, 31% right and within 7 points (4/13) Week 8 - 7 right, 8 wrong - 47% right, 33% right and within 7 points (5/15) Week 9 - 5 right, 9 wrong - 36% right, 29% right and within 7 points (4/14) Week 10 - 6 right, 7 wrong - 46% right, 15% right and within 7 points (2/13) Week 11 - 8 right, 7 wrong - 53% right, 20% right and within 7 points (3/15) Week 12 - 8 right, 7 wrong - 53% right, 33% right and within 7 points (5/15) Week 13 - 7 right, 7 wrong - 50% right, 21% right and within 7 points (3/14) Week 14 - 11 right, 3 wrong - 79% right, 50% right and within 7 points (7/14) Week 15 - 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 44% right and within 7 points (7/16) Week 16 - 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right, 38% right and within 7 points (6/16) Week 17 - 13 right, 3 wrong - 81% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16) Week 18 - 8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16) Playoffs: Wild Card: 5 right, 1 wrong - 83% right, 17% right and within 7 points (1/6) Divisional: 1 right, 3 wrong - 25% right, 25% right and within 7 points (1/4) Conference: 1 right, 1 wrong - 50% right, 50% right and within 7 points (1/2) Super Bowl: 1 right, 0 wrong - 100% right, 100% right and within 7 points (1/1)



Playoff Summary


Playoffs - Wild Card Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 15 PICK SCORE
Las Vegas (10-7) at Cincinnati (10-7) (4:30) C by 6 C 26-19
New England (10-7) at Buffalo (11-6) (8:15) B by 5 B 47-17
SUNDAY JANUARY 16 PICK SCORE
Philadelphia (9-8) at Tampa Bay (13-4) (1:00) T by 8 T 31-15
San Francisco (10-7) at Dallas (12-5) (4:30) D by 6 S 23-17
Pittsburgh (9-7-1) at Kansas City (12-5) (8:15) K by 9 K 42-21

MONDAY JANUARY 17 PICK SCORE
Arizona (11-6) at LA Rams (12-5) (8:15) L by 4 L 34-11

Correct winners: 5/6
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/6


Playoffs - Divisional Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 22 PICK SCORE
Cincinnati (11-7) at Tennessee (12-5) (4:30) T by 4 C 19-16
San Francisco (11-7) at Green Bay (13-4) (8:15) G by 4 S 13-10

SUNDAY JANUARY 23 PICK SCORE
LA Rams (13-5) at Tampa Bay (14-4) (3:00) T by 4 L 30-27
Buffalo (12-6) at Kansas City (13-5) (6:30) K by 3 K 42-36(ot)

Correct winners: 1/4
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/4


Playoffs - Conference Championships
SUNDAY JANUARY 30 PICK SCORE
AFC - Cincinnati (12-7) at Kansas City (14-5) (3:00) K by 6 C 27-24(ot)
NFC - San Francisco (12-7) at LA Rams (14-5) (6:30) L by 5 L 20-17

Correct winners: 1/2
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/2


Super Bowl LVI - at Inglewood, CA
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 13 PICK SCORE
Cincinnati (13-7) at LA Rams (15-5) (6:30) L by 6 L 23-20

Correct winners: 1/1
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/1


NFL Team Rankings

Team W L T RATING
1 Los Angeles Rams 16 5 0 56.8
2 Buffalo Bills 12 7 0 56.0
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 5 0 55.7
4 Kansas City Chiefs 14 6 0 55.4
5 San Francisco 49ers 12 8 0 54.9
6 Green Bay Packers 13 5 0 54.7
7 Dallas Cowboys 12 6 0 54.7
8 Cincinnati Bengals 13 8 0 53.7
9 Arizona Cardinals 11 7 0 53.4
10 Tennessee Titans 12 6 0 52.7
11 New England Patriots 10 8 0 52.7
12 Indianapolis Colts 9 8 0 52.1
13 New Orleans Saints 9 8 0 51.5
14 Seattle Seahawks 7 10 0 50.9
15 Los Angeles Chargers 9 8 0 50.6
16 Philadelphia Eagles 9 9 0 50.5
17 Minnesota Vikings 8 9 0 50.3
18 Baltimore Ravens 8 9 0 50.0
19 Cleveland Browns 8 9 0 49.4
20 Pittsburgh Steelers 9 8 1 49.4
21 Las Vegas Raiders 10 8 0 49.1
22 Miami Dolphins 9 8 0 48.7
23 Denver Broncos 7 10 0 48.4
24 Washington Football 7 10 0 47.4
25 Chicago Bears 6 11 0 46.8
26 Carolina Panthers 5 12 0 45.2
27 Atlanta Falcons 7 10 0 45.1
28 Detroit Lions 3 13 1 44.0
29 New York Giants 4 13 0 43.5
30 Houston Texans 4 13 0 42.9
31 New York Jets 4 13 0 41.8
32 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 14 0 41.6


NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for PA = Points against SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.


NFL 2021
AFC EAST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 Buffalo Bills 12 7 0 56.0 566 348 30
11 New England Patriots 10 8 0 52.7 479 350 26
22 Miami Dolphins 9 8 0 48.7 341 373 32
31 New York Jets 4 13 0 41.8 310 504 22

AFC NORTH(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
8 Cincinnati Bengals 13 8 0 53.7 552 458 12
18 Baltimore Ravens 8 9 0 50.0 387 392 13
19 Cleveland Browns 8 9 0 49.4 349 371 18
20 Pittsburgh Steelers 9 8 1 49.4 364 440 3

AFC SOUTH(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
10 Tennessee Titans 12 6 0 52.7 435 373 27
12 Indianapolis Colts 9 8 0 52.1 451 365 28
30 Houston Texans 4 13 0 42.9 280 451 19
32 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 14 0 41.6 253 457 14

AFC WEST(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 Kansas City Chiefs 14 6 0 55.4 588 448 16
15 Los Angeles Chargers 9 8 0 50.6 474 459 23
21 Las Vegas Raiders 10 8 0 49.1 393 465 11
23 Denver Broncos 7 10 0 48.4 335 322 31


NFC EAST(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
7 Dallas Cowboys 12 6 0 54.7 547 381 25
16 Philadelphia Eagles 9 9 0 50.5 459 416 21
24 Washington Football 7 10 0 47.4 335 434 8
29 New York Giants 4 13 0 43.5 258 416 10

NFC NORTH(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 Green Bay Packers 13 5 0 54.7 460 384 15
17 Minnesota Vikings 8 9 0 50.3 425 426 9
25 Chicago Bears 6 11 0 46.8 311 407 5
28 Detroit Lions 3 13 1 44.0 325 467 4

NFC SOUTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 5 0 55.7 569 398 29
13 New Orleans Saints 9 8 0 51.5 364 335 17
26 Carolina Panthers 5 12 0 45.2 304 404 20
27 Atlanta Falcons 7 10 0 45.1 313 459 24

NFC WEST(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 Los Angeles Rams 16 5 0 56.8 567 447 6
5 San Francisco 49ers 12 8 0 54.9 480 412 1
9 Arizona Cardinals 11 7 0 53.4 459 400 2
14 Seattle Seahawks 7 10 0 50.9 395 366 7