2023 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions

Last updated: Monday, February 12, 2024 - final ratings Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team. These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors, including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.


NFL Football Predictions

In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals. PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES/PICKING WINNER AND MARGIN WITHIN 8 POINTS: SEASON TO DATE: 172 right, 113 wrong - 60% right; 38% right and within 8 points (109/285) WEEK BY WEEK: Week 1: 8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16) Week 2: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 44% right and within 8 points (7/16) Week 3: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16) Week 4: 7 right, 9 wrong - 44% right; 25% right and within 8 points (4/16) Week 5: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14) Week 6: 11 right, 4 wrong - 73% right; 53% right and within 8 points (8/15) Week 7: 7 right, 6 wrong - 54% right; 31% right and within 8 points (4/13) Week 8: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16) Week 9: 12 right, 2 wrong - 86% right; 50% right and within 8 points (7/14) Week 10: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14) Week 11: 9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right; 36% right and within 8 points (5/14) Week 12: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16) Week 13: 6 right, 7 wrong - 46% right; 38% right and within 8 points (5/13) Week 14: 7 right, 8 wrong - 47% right; 20% right and within 8 points (3/15) Week 15: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16) Week 16: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16) Week 17: 12 right, 4 wrong - 75% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16) Week 18: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16) Wild Card: 4 right, 2 wrong - 67% right; 17% right and within 8 points (1/6) Divisional: 3 right, 1 wrong - 75% right; 50% right and within 8 points (2/4) Conference: 1 right, 1 wrong - 50% right; 50% right and within 8 points (1/2) Super Bowl: 0 right, 1 wrong - 0% right, 0% right and within 8 points (0/1)



Playoff Summary


Playoffs - Wild Card Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 13 PICK SCORE
AFC: #5 Cleveland (11-6) at #4 Houston (10-7) (4:30) Even - C H 45-14
AFC: #6 Miami (11-6) at #3 Kansas City (11-6) (8:00) K by 4 K 26-7

SUNDAY JANUARY 14 PICK SCORE
AFC: #7 Pittsburgh (10-7) at #2 Buffalo (11-6) (1:00) B by 5 B 31-17
NFC: #7 Green Bay (9-8) at #2 Dallas (12-5) (4:30) D by 7 G 48-32
NFC: #6 LA Rams (10-7) at #3 Detroit (12-5) (8:00) D by 5 D 24-23

MONDAY JANUARY 15 PICK SCORE
NFC: #5 Philadelphia (11-6) at #4 Tampa Bay (9-8) (8:15) T by 2 T 32-9

Correct winners: 4/6
Correct winner and within 8 points: 1/6



Playoffs - Divisional Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 20 PICK SCORE
AFC: #4 Houston (11-7) at #1 Baltimore (13-4) (4:30) B by 9 B 34-10
NFC: #7 Green Bay (9-8) at #1 San Francisco (12-5) (8:15) S by 7 S 24-21

SUNDAY JANUARY 21 PICK SCORE
NFC: #4 Tampa Bay (10-8) at #3 Detroit (13-5) (3:00) D by 6 D 31-23
AFC: #3 Kansas City (12-6) at #2 Buffalo (12-6) (6:30) B by 3 K 27-24

Correct winners: 3/4
Correct winner and within 8 points: 2/4



Playoffs - Conference Championships
SUNDAY JANUARY 28 PICK SCORE
AFC - #3 Kansas City (13-6) at #1 Baltimore (14-4) (3:00) B by 7 K 17-10
NFC - #3 Detroit (14-5) at #1 San Francisco (13-5) (6:30) S by 5 S 34-31

Correct winners: 1/2
Correct winner and within 8 points: 1/2



Super Bowl LVIII - at Las Vegas, NV
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 11 PICK SCORE
San Francisco (14-5) vs. Kansas City (14-6) (6:30) Even - S K 25-22(ot)

Correct winners: 0/1
Correct winner and within 8 points: 0/1


NFL Team Rankings

Team W L T RATING
1 Kansas City Chiefs 15 6 0 57.6
2 Baltimore Ravens 14 5 0 57.5
3 San Francisco 49ers 14 6 0 56.9
4 Detroit Lions 14 6 0 55.3
5 Buffalo Bills 12 7 0 54.0
6 Green Bay Packers 10 9 0 53.4
7 Dallas Cowboys 12 6 0 52.6
8 Los Angeles Rams 10 8 0 52.3
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 9 0 51.6
10 Miami Dolphins 11 7 0 51.5
11 Cincinnati Bengals 9 8 0 51.5
12 Cleveland Browns 11 7 0 51.3
13 Houston Texans 11 8 0 51.3
14 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 8 0 51.2
15 Pittsburgh Steelers 10 8 0 50.8
16 New Orleans Saints 9 8 0 50.6
17 Philadelphia Eagles 11 7 0 50.1
18 Seattle Seahawks 9 8 0 49.8
19 Minnesota Vikings 7 10 0 49.6
20 Las Vegas Raiders 8 9 0 49.5
21 Indianapolis Colts 9 8 0 49.1
22 Denver Broncos 8 9 0 49.0
23 Chicago Bears 7 10 0 48.7
24 Los Angeles Chargers 5 12 0 47.6
25 Tennessee Titans 6 11 0 46.9
26 Atlanta Falcons 7 10 0 46.2
27 New York Jets 7 10 0 46.1
28 New York Giants 6 11 0 45.7
29 Arizona Cardinals 4 13 0 44.8
30 New England Patriots 4 13 0 43.9
31 Washington Commanders 4 13 0 42.4
32 Carolina Panthers 2 15 0 41.4


NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for PA = Points against SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.


NFL 2023
AFC EAST(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
5 Buffalo Bills 12 7 0 54.0 506 355 28
10 Miami Dolphins 11 7 0 51.5 503 417 25
27 New York Jets 7 10 0 46.1 268 355 29
30 New England Patriots 4 13 0 43.9 236 366 24

AFC NORTH(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 Baltimore Ravens 14 5 0 57.5 527 307 12
11 Cincinnati Bengals 9 8 0 51.5 366 384 1
12 Cleveland Browns 11 7 0 51.3 410 407 7
15 Pittsburgh Steelers 10 8 0 50.8 321 355 3

AFC SOUTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
13 Houston Texans 11 8 0 51.3 432 401 22
14 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 8 0 51.2 377 371 13
21 Indianapolis Colts 9 8 0 49.1 396 415 27
25 Tennessee Titans 6 11 0 46.9 305 367 19

AFC WEST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 Kansas City Chiefs 15 6 0 57.6 466 357 2
20 Las Vegas Raiders 8 9 0 49.5 332 331 18
22 Denver Broncos 8 9 0 49.0 357 413 17
24 Los Angeles Chargers 5 12 0 47.6 346 398 10


NFC EAST(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
7 Dallas Cowboys 12 6 0 52.6 541 363 31
17 Philadelphia Eagles 11 7 0 50.1 442 460 20
28 New York Giants 6 11 0 45.7 266 407 23
31 Washington Commanders 4 13 0 42.4 329 518 26

NFC NORTH(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 Detroit Lions 14 6 0 55.3 547 475 9
6 Green Bay Packers 10 9 0 53.4 452 406 4
19 Minnesota Vikings 7 10 0 49.6 344 362 6
23 Chicago Bears 7 10 0 48.7 360 379 21

NFC SOUTH(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 9 0 51.6 403 365 16
16 New Orleans Saints 9 8 0 50.6 402 327 30
26 Atlanta Falcons 7 10 0 46.2 321 373 32
32 Carolina Panthers 2 15 0 41.4 236 416 14

NFC WEST(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 San Francisco 49ers 14 6 0 56.9 571 375 11
8 Los Angeles Rams 10 8 0 52.3 427 401 5
18 Seattle Seahawks 9 8 0 49.8 364 402 15
29 Arizona Cardinals 4 13 0 44.8 330 455 8